A still larger question which the history of these times suggests
is the cause of climatic oscillations. I have maintained that the
well-known theory advanced by James Croll is the only one that seems
to throw any light upon the subject, and the observations which have
been made since I discussed the question at length, some fifteen years
ago, have added strength to that conviction. As Sir Robert Ball has
remarked, the astronomical theory is really much stronger than Croll
made it out to be. In his recently-published work, _The Cause of an Ice
Age_, Sir Robert says that the theory is so thoroughly well based that
there is no longer any ground for doubting its truth. "We have even
shown," he continues, "that the astronomical conditions are so definite
that astronomers are entitled to direct that vigorous search be
instituted on this globe to discover the traces of those vast climatic
changes through which astronomy declares that our earth must have
passed." In concluding this paper, therefore, I may shortly indicate
how far the geological evidence seems to answer the requirements of the
theory.
Following Croll, we find that the last period of great eccentricity
of the earth's orbit extended over 160,000 years--the eccentricity
reaching its highest value in the earlier stages of the cycle. It is
obvious that during this long cycle the precession of the equinox must
have completed seven revolutions. We might therefore expect to meet
with geological evidence of recurrent cold or glacial and genial or
interglacial epochs; and not only so, but the records ought to show
that the earlier glacial epoch or epochs were colder than those that
followed. Now we find that the epoch of maximum glaciation supervened
in early Pleistocene times, and that three separate and distinct
glacial epochs of diminished severity followed. Of these three, the
first would appear to have been almost as severe as that which preceded
it, and it certainly much surpassed in severity the cold epochs of the
later stages. But the epoch of maximum glaciation, or the first of
the Pleistocene series, was not the earliest glacial epoch. It seems
to have been preceded by one of somewhat less severity than itself,
but which nevertheless, as we gather from the observations of Penck
and his collaborators, was about as important as that which came
after the epoch of maximum glaciation. Hence it would appear that the
correspondence of the geological evidence with the requirements of
the astronomical theory is as close as we could expect it to be. Four
glacial with intervening genial epochs appear to have fallen within
Pleistocene times; while towards the close of the Pliocene, or at the
beginning of the Pleistocene period, according as we choose to classify
the deposits, an earlier glacial epoch followed by genial interglacial
conditions, supervened.
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