All of the great wars in European history have been followed by periods of increased production and economic expansion. Experts are convinced that the World War will prove no exception to the world's previous experience. Wars have been the principal influence that have determined the course of commodities and prices. In the Napoleonic Wars the index number rose seventy-two points in twenty years, but during the four years between 1914 and 1918 there was a rise of one hundred and eight points in four and a half years, a movement which Edgar Crammond, widely known British expert in economic and financial affairs, declared to be a movement to which there was no precedent in point of rapidity or magnitude. In an address outlined in the New York _Journal of Commerce_ this authority estimated the direct cost of the war to the Allies as being roughly $145,000,000,000. The Central Powers had spent about $60,000,000,000. The total cost in dollars he estimated at $260,000,000,000. The upheaval caused by the war was manifested, according to the same authority, in the rise of the cost of living and in the universal increase of wages. Other economic consequences will be more gradually unfolded. Prospects of fall in the price of commodities and wages as the result of peace, he thinks, will be arrested for two reasons: First, the vast increase in the amount of paper money; second, the huge amount of public debts to the belligerents. He saw an additional psychological cause in the attitude of the laboring classes to maintain wages at a higher level than before the war and to improve the standard of living. Reduced production is sufficient to account for all the economic disturbances that were produced during the war, according to the London _Statist_, which says: "It is enough to say that production is reduced almost to a minimum, while consumption is going on at a most extravagant rate. Those who wish to pose as economists without competent knowledge are telling the public that all the evil is due to this, that, and the other thing--such, for example, as inflation, the rise in prices, the enormous loans raised, and several other fads. It is pure moonshine. The world is impoverished, firstly, because so much of the world's manhood is withdrawn from production to consumption; and, secondly, because reduction in production is so serious that very little has been saved either by the belligerents or the neutral countries of Europe, at all events. International trade is really carried on by barter. It is true that money is frequently paid. At the present time money has in some markets to be paid because credit has been injured, and those who possess wealth are not as willing as they used to be to trust to mere credit." QUESTIONS OF INFLATION