Herbert Hoover: The Man and His WorkKellogg, Vernon L. (Vernon Lyman)
History
Herbert Hoover: The Man and His Work
Kellogg, Vernon L. (Vernon Lyman)
Hoover, Herbert, 1874-1964; World War, 1914-1918 -- Food supply
The wholesale price of about 90 per cent of our food in normal times is
only remotely determined by the cost of production, but mostly by world
conditions. We export a surplus of most commodities among the 90 per
cent and the prices of exports are determined by competition with other
world supplies in the European wholesale markets. Those items in this 90
per cent that we do not export are influenced by the same forces,
because in normal times we import them on any considerable variation in
price and the wholesaler naturally buys in the cheapest market. Even
milk is to a considerable degree controlled by butter imports in normal
times. When we import butter it releases more milk in competition. This
cannot be said to such extent of most of the odd 10 per cent, because
they are largely perishables that do not stand overseas transport and
consequently rise and fall more nearly directly upon local supply and
demand. Some economists will at once argue that if prices are
unprofitable to the farmer the situation will correct itself by
diminished production and, consequently, a general rise in the world
level of prices. In the abstract, this is true, but as a matter of fact
the surplus which our farmers contribute for export is only a small
portion of their total production or of the world pool, yet the total of
the world pool operating through this minor segment makes the prices for
a large part of the farmers' commodities. Therefore, the effect in
normal times of restriction in production in any one country does not
affect price so much as theoretic argument would believe. The farmer
must plant if he would live, and he must plant long in advance of his
knowledge of prices or world production. He can make no contracts in
advance of his planting, nor can he cease operations on the day prices
fall too low. He is driven on, year after year, in hope and necessity,
and will continue over long periods with a standard of return below
rightful living because he has no other course--and always has hopes. He
will vary fairly rapidly from one commodity to another--from wheat to
other grains, for instance--but he mostly raises his maximum of
something. In the long run of decreasing prices he would undoubtedly
reach so low a standard as to cease production. Then comes a
comparatively short period of higher prices in some commodity;
production is again stimulated and followed by long intervals of low
standards. As shown by the following table, on the whole, the farmer has
not been underpaid during the war, but the currents again are turning
against him.
It will be seen that the farmer enjoyed prices equivalent to or higher
than the general level up to the last six months. He is now, however,
falling behind in some important products. Unlike the industrial
workers, he is unable to demand an adjustment of his income to the
changed index of living.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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