The British army, exclusive of sir John Moore’s division, had only provisions, or transport for provisions, sufficient to last for ten or twelve days, and the fleet was the only resource when that supply should be exhausted. But a gale from any point between the southward and north-west, would have driven the ships away or have cast them on a lee-shore. Hence an indispensable preliminary measure would have been to open the mouth of the Tagus as a security for the fleet; but without occupying Cascaes, Bugio, and St. Julians, that was impossible. To take the last-named fort would have required ten days’ open trenches at the least, and the heavy artillery must have been landed in some of the small creeks, and dragged by force of men over the mountains, because the artillery horses were scarcely able to draw the field guns, and the country was incapable of supplying assistance of that kind. In the mean time, the French troops in Lisbon, and those upon the heights of Almada and in the men-of-war, retiring tranquilly through the Alemtejo, would have united with Junot; or if he had fallen back upon Almeida, they could have retired upon Elvas and La-Lyppe. In this argument the Russians have not been considered, but whatever his secret wishes might have been, Siniavin must have joined the French or surrendered his squadron in a disgraceful manner. This would have increased Junot’s force by six thousand men; and it may here be observed, that even after the arrival of sir John Moore, only twenty-five thousand British infantry were fit for duty. Let it be supposed that the forts were taken, the English fleet in the river, the resources of Lisbon organized, and the battering guns and ammunition necessary for the siege of Elvas transported to Abrantes by water. Seventy miles of land remained to traverse, and then three months of arduous operations in the sickly season, and in the most pestilent of situations, would have been the certain consequences of any attempt to reduce that fortress. Did the difficulty end there? No! Almeida remained, and in the then state of the roads of Portugal, and taking into consideration only the certain and foreseen obstacles, it is not too much to say, that six months more would have been wasted before the country could be entirely freed from the invaders. But long before that period Napoleon’s eagles would have soared over Lisbon again. The conclusion is inevitable; the convention was a great and solid advantage for the allies, a blunder on the part of the French.