26. Two points connected with the above may be emphasised before we
pass on to the statistical problem. In the first place, in the event of
a _financial_ crisis, accompanied by numerous bank failures, I do not
think it likely that the Government would be overwhelmed with demands
for the encashment in sterling of notes and rupees. It would be much
more in accordance with what we know of similar crises elsewhere to
expect hoarding on a large scale, rather than a diminished demand for
currency and an ability to export it. In this matter the experience
of 1907–8, when the monetary position in India was easy throughout,
may prove, I think, misleading. During the eventful weeks in November
1907, when the Bank of England rate stood at 7 per cent, the Bank of
Bengal rate did not rise above 6 per cent.[74] No tendency whatever was
apparent for there to be withdrawals of money from the banks in India,
or for hoarding to reassert itself amongst the class which is learning
to bank. On the other hand, the comparative failure of the crops
left financiers with considerable rupee funds in their hands which
they could not use. The banks had, therefore, no special difficulty
in putting their hands on rupees and notes, and the only problem was
for the Government to turn these into sterling. The easiness of the
internal money market at that time and the total absence of banking
trouble have produced the impression that there will be plenty of
rupee funds available at a crisis, and that the only question will be
as to whether the Government can turn these into sterling. The great
development of Indian Joint Stock Banking since that time on not
perfectly sound lines makes it doubtful whether bank troubles will be
absent in an equal degree on the next occasion of difficulty.
There is no one now living in England within whose memory hoarding has
been a normal thing. But in countries where the tradition is but lately
dead or still lingers, it is apt to revive with astonishing vitality
at the least sign of danger. The extent to which the people resorted
to hoarding in France, Germany, and Austria (especially in the latter
country) during the Balkan War was very remarkable, and has exhibited
a danger to which the banking systems of those countries are still
subject, although some had begun to forget it. If this is the case in
European countries, there cannot be much doubt as to what would happen
in India. Some banking failures, a hint of political trouble,—and the
old habits will come back, whatever progress banking may seem to have
made in a time of prosperity.
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