Influenza : $b An epidemiologic studyVaughan, Warren T. (Warren Taylor)
History
Influenza : $b An epidemiologic study
Vaughan, Warren T. (Warren Taylor)
Influenza
─────────────────┴─────────────────┴─────────────────┴─────────────────
Howard and Love have established definitely that the extension of the
virulent influenza from Camp Devens to other camps south and west in
September, 1918, can be traced in many instances directly to the
interchange of military personnel from infected to non-infected camps.
The height of the September outbreak in the United States Army extended
over a period of about nine weeks, from Sept. 13th to November 15th, and
during this period over 20,000 deaths occurred among troops in the
United States alone in excess of the number that would have occurred, if
the disease death rate for the corresponding period of the preceding
year had prevailed.
It is interesting to note with respect to Camp Humphreys, Virginia, that
there were possibly some sporadic cases previous to the autumn outbreak.
Brewer in reporting on the epidemic in September and October records the
first case as having occurred shortly after July 1st. He makes no
mention of there having been any outbreak whatever prior to that date.
Between July 1st and September 12th there were only sporadic cases
diagnosed as influenza. The autumn outbreak began at Camp Humphreys
September 13th and ended October 18th.
RECRUDESCENCES.
We have already seen from the work of Pearl that recrudescences
following the original spread in any one locality were the rule rather
than the exception in this country. He found that in sixty-five per
cent. of the forty cities studied there were two distinct peaks in the
mortality curve and in twenty per cent. there were three, while only
fifteen per cent. had but one peak. The first peak was as a rule the
highest. Although there was no absolute regularity in the time of
occurrence of the recrudescences, Pearl established that the high peak
cities had the second peaks on an average 7.1 weeks after the first, and
the third peak on an average 13.1 weeks after the second. The two-peak
cities are divided into two classes, the first comprising about a third
of the total number, had the second mortality peak around eight weeks
after the first, while the remaining two-thirds had the second peak
about thirteen weeks after the first. The cycle in the epidemic wave
appears to be nearly a multiple of seven weeks. He suggests that the
smaller group of two-peak cities with early second peak may have been
cities which at the time were presumably destined to show a third
distinct wave and peak of mortality, but in which for some reason not
now apparent the third wave did not eventuate. In contradistinction the
larger group of two-peak cities with the second peak occurring around
thirteen weeks after the first are presumably cities in which the
complex of factors determining the form of the mortality curve was such
as to lead definitely to a two and only two-peak curve. In three-peak
cities the first interval was around seven weeks, the second around
thirteen weeks.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
Reviews
Reviews
No reviews yet
Be the first to share your thoughts on this work.
Elsewhere in the archive
Join the Discussion
Join the discussion
Sign in to leave a comment or review.
Sign InorCreate an account