Influenza : $b An epidemiologic studyVaughan, Warren T. (Warren Taylor)
History
Influenza : $b An epidemiologic study
Vaughan, Warren T. (Warren Taylor)
Influenza
Spear concludes that if there is any periodicity it is around fifty
weeks, or a year.
The fallacy in the work of Stallybrass and of Brownlee, according to
him, is that the mortality in the third week of 1892, the twentieth week
of 1891, and the tenth week of 1895, and in the big epidemic of 1918 so
overshadowed all the other peaks that the smaller ones became lost in
these larger waves.
Brownlee does not claim a 33-week periodicity during interepidemic
periods. This part of Spear’s criticism is not valid.
Vaughan’s objections to the conclusions on measles hold equally well
with regard to influenza. Finally, we must remember that in parts, at
least, of the work of Brownlee and Stallybrass, they are not studying
chiefly influenza deaths, but deaths reported as due to bronchitis and
pneumonia.
After a study of the pros and cons of the question of periodicity the
author submits by way of summary his conclusions:
1. Influenza does tend to recur at intervals. It has not been proven
that these intervals are always of equal length.
2. At the present the opinions concerning the periods are divergent. We
have the 33-week periodicity of Brownlee and Stallybrass, the one-year
period of Spear, the seven-week intervals suggested by Pearl, and the
apparent twelve-week recurrences in England in 1918 and 1919.
3. It is to be noted that particularly in the work of Stallybrass, in
order to prove his periodicity, he finds it necessary at times to quote
epidemics occurring, not in England, but in fairly remote parts of the
world, as in the United States and Japan. We have shown that in the
interval between 1918 and 1920 an epidemic could be discovered somewhere
on the earth in many months, perhaps even in every month during this
interval. It is to be regretted that following the criticism by Spear
there has been no further report, so far as we know, by either Brownlee
or Stallybrass.
4. It is quite possible, even probable, that influenza is endemic in
mild form throughout the interpandemic years in England, as well as in
many, or all other countries, but it is equally possible or probable
that the particular virus which gave rise to the pandemic was not one
which simultaneously increased in virulence in all countries, but was
one which had its origin in one comparatively well localized focus.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
Reviews
Reviews
No reviews yet
Be the first to share your thoughts on this work.
Elsewhere in the archive
Join the Discussion
Join the discussion
Sign in to leave a comment or review.
Sign InorCreate an account