Influenza : $b An epidemiologic studyVaughan, Warren T. (Warren Taylor)
History
Influenza : $b An epidemiologic study
Vaughan, Warren T. (Warren Taylor)
Influenza
That as a rule the disease did not appear explosively in a family; but
that cases developed successively, is indicated by the fact that out of
577 families contracting influenza in the epidemic of 1920 the cases
were all of simultaneous development in but fifteen. In thirteen of
these, two individuals fell ill on the same day and no subsequent cases
developed. In the other two families three individuals came down on the
first day and no other cases developed. In addition there were, out of
the 577 families, fourteen in which there were two or more cases
developing on the first day of the invasion, but which were followed on
subsequent days by later cases in the same family. Again, there were
eleven families in which two or more cases occurred simultaneously at an
interval of one or more days after the development of a single prior
case.
We may say that _as a rule in the 1920 epidemic, cases of influenza
developed in families successively and not simultaneously_. In only 29,
or 5 per cent. of the families contracting the disease in 1920, did more
than one case develop on the first day of the appearance of the disease
in the family.
A certain difficulty in determining the date of onset is that we must
rely upon the patient’s statement. One individual may have been sick for
hours or days before a second member coming down with the disease called
forth recognition of the fact that they both had it.
Unfortunately we are not able to give similar statistics for the 1918–19
epidemic. Our investigation occurred so long after the epidemic that
specific dates of onset of the disease would have been entirely
unreliable. The nearest date we have attempted to obtain was the month
of the attack.
Dr. A. L. Mason states that 63 cases came under his observation in the
epidemic of 1889 as occurring in groups in families. In but six
instances were two persons attacked on the same day. The average
interval between cases in the same household was four days. Sometimes a
week or more elapsed. Whole families were never stricken at once.
Parsons in 1891 concluded from the results of questionaires sent to
physicians that in the first spread, 1889–90, there was an interval
between cases in individual households just as we have described. Among
the replies to his questionaires nine described intervals of one day and
under, six described intervals of two days, three of three days, three
of four days, and four replies described intervals of more than four
days.
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