Influenza : $b An epidemiologic studyVaughan, Warren T. (Warren Taylor)
History
Influenza : $b An epidemiologic study
Vaughan, Warren T. (Warren Taylor)
Influenza
Attempts even today to determine when and where influenza has prevailed
in the world since the great pandemic of the last century are met with
great difficulties. There are several reasons for this, chief among
which is the absence of definite characteristics by which the disease
may be recognized. The isolated solitary case baffles positive
diagnosis. Nearly every year there are reports in the literature of
small outbreaks in institutions or communities in which the clinical
picture is that of epidemic influenza. As a rule the conclusion has been
in these cases that because the bacteriologic findings did not show a
predominance of Pfeiffer’s bacillus the epidemic was not true influenza.
This is particularly true in the outbreaks in which the streptococcus
predominated. Today our views concerning the bacteriology have changed
distinctly, and I believe it is safe to say that the predominance of a
streptococcus in a local epidemic in no way rules out influenza, and
that the only criteria by which we may judge are the clinical picture
and the evidence of high infectivity, together with the epidemiologic
characteristics of the local outbreak.
_Period 1893–1918._—A review of the medical literature between 1889 and
1918 gives one a certain impression which may be summarized as follows:
Between 1890 and 1900 the disease was in general more highly prevalent
in most localities than at any time during the preceding thirty years.
At no time during this decade did the annual death rate from influenza
in England and Wales fall to anywhere near the figures that had
prevailed consistently between 1860 and 1889. Between 1900 and 1915
there was a gradual diminution, but still not to the extent that had
prevailed previous to 1889. Since 1915 there appears to have been a
gradual increase. During the entire period there has been difficulty in
distinguishing between the disease in question and other respiratory
tract infections, particularly coryza, sore throat, tonsillitis, and
bronchitis. Many of the local epidemics which appear probably to have
been true influenza have had associated with them a high incidence of
sore throats. We describe this as sore throat, rather than tonsillitis,
because the clinician remarks that although the throat is sore there is
little if any demonstrable inflammation of the tonsils.
Chart VIII published by Sir Arthur Newsholme, showing the death rate per
million of population from influenza in England and Wales gives some
idea of the prevalence of the disease in the first part of the
interpandemic period in those countries. It should be remarked that the
record is for deaths from influenza only.
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