Influenza : $b An epidemiologic studyVaughan, Warren T. (Warren Taylor)
History
Influenza : $b An epidemiologic study
Vaughan, Warren T. (Warren Taylor)
Influenza
“There have been in the past several well described influenza epidemics
limited to North America. Furthermore true pandemics have occurred at
the same time in North America and in Europe. We can suggest the
hypothesis that there is a permanent endemic focus, just as in central
Asia and Russia, existing in the southern part of North America. The
following facts concerning the last pandemic period favor this idea.
“As early as May, 1889, influenza began in Athabasca (British North
America) and in the summer of 1889, in Greenland. It is especially
interesting to hear of an extensive influenza epidemic which in the
middle or toward the end of December, 1889, broke out in the Northwest
Territory of British North America, in Manitoba, in the Island of
Vancouver, similar to that in the east of Canada and Quebec. A spread of
the epidemic, which attacked Boston and New York on December 17th, to
the above territories, far away and connected by very poor
transportation facilities, is certainly improbable, especially in
consideration of the time at which the two epidemics occurred.
“We are told that the invasion and the outbreak of influenza in these
vast territories occurred at practically the same time at such widely
separated places as Fort MacLeod, Saskatchewan, Prince Albert and other
military posts, and furthermore in isolated Indian camps and tribes
between which there was little or no communication.
“These facts also indicate that we are considering primary endemic
pandemics analogous to the one which broke out in July, 1889, in Central
Asia.”
3. The virus of influenza is more or less uniformly distributed
throughout the world. We may say that it is endemic in many localities,
as is the case with the meningococcus. Quite frequently in one locality
or another the virus acquires increased virulence and causes a small
local epidemic which may even spread to adjoining territories. It is
possible that the virus in two or more separated localities may become
more invasive simultaneously, thus causing widely separated and
unrelated outbreaks. As a rule the virulence does not become so great as
to cause a true pandemic, but at rare intervals, usually of decades, or
thereabouts, the epidemic virus becomes so greatly enhanced, perhaps
from passage to new territory and through non-immune individuals, that
it eventually commences on its wild career around the earth. Perhaps the
_pandemic_ variety usually comes from one particular locality among the
many endemic spots. Perhaps always from the same locality or perhaps at
times even simultaneously from many different ones. It is possible even
that an increased virulence develops simultaneously in all localities.
This third hypothesis develops into a discussion as to whether the small
interpandemic epidemics are true influenza or some other disease.
Again, Leichtenstern, although he does not favor it, recognizes the
possibility of this theory:
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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