Influenza : $b An epidemiologic studyVaughan, Warren T. (Warren Taylor)
History
Influenza : $b An epidemiologic study
Vaughan, Warren T. (Warren Taylor)
Influenza
Cinematogram showing the spread of influenza in 1918 from a
presumptive primary focus in the United States.
]
It is particularly of interest to follow the spread of the disease in
Europe. Perhaps the chief characteristic is the distribution equally to
the north and south of France, a country which appears to have been
invaded early. In May it spread to Scotland and to Spain, Greece and
Egypt. In June the spread was in three directions, to England and Norway
on the North, to Switzerland, Germany and Austria on the East, and again
into Spain and Italy on the South.
The correctness of the foregoing description of the spread of influenza
depends first, upon the accuracy of the authorities quoted, and
particularly upon our having discovered the earliest report for each
country. The author believes that the information as obtained for the
United States represents nearly the true state of affairs, and that the
error present is negligible. The information obtained for France is
based upon the statements of excellent investigators, Netter, Chauffard
and Massary, for the French population, and MacNeal, Zinsser and
Longcope, for the American Expeditionary Forces. Here the statements
agree both for the military and for the civil population that there was
no widespread influenza in France much before April 1st. Also, the
author feels that the information for England and Scotland is
authoritative and will not later be changed. It is based particularly
upon the excellent reports by Carnwath, who has investigated the subject
in great detail. The excerpts from the German literature, although not
abundant, are practically unanimous in agreeing as to the date of
invasion in Germany. The reports from the remaining countries of Europe
have been less abundant, and frequently the author has been forced to
rely upon a report by only one individual; but while the date may be in
error, yet the month of occurrence is probably correct.
For other continents, Asia, Africa and South America, the reports as far
as they go appear reliable, but it is impossible to prove that at an
earlier date there was not a very mild epidemic in some one of these
localities, similar to the earlier epidemic in the United States, which
escaped detection. It is particularly important, in view of the 1889
experience, that we obtain if possible fuller information on the
earliest time of the appearance of the disease in China and other parts
of Asia, and that we determine whether there was a spread from that
continent to America previous to March, 1918.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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