As early as 1611 Sir George Carew had foretold that the dispossessed natives of Ulster would some day rebel, that there would be a war of religion, and that the Protestant settlers would be surprised. The Irish exiles in the Spanish service had ever since been a source of apprehension, and abortive plots were laid from time to time both in Spain and in the Netherlands. Communications by way of England were always possible, and Clarendon thought much mischief was done by the Committee from the Irish Parliament, 'consisting most of Papists, and since the most active in the rebellion.' In July 1640 a cipher code was established between Sir Phelim O'Neill in Ulster and Owen Roe O'Neill in Flanders, who received a visit from Hugh MacPhelim, afterwards one of the leaders in Ireland. O'Byrne observed that they were risking their lives daily to 'succour a scabbed town' for the Spanish king, and that they would be no worse off fighting for their own country. It was believed that Ulster and Munster would join together. Nor was the English Government without suspicion, for Vane, by the King's orders, warned the Lords Justices a little later that an unspeakable number of 'Irish Churchmen had passed from Spain to England and Ireland, and some good old soldiers,' on pretence of recruiting, but that rumours of a rebellion, especially in Connaught, circulated freely among the friars. It was not, however, until about a fortnight before the insurrection that anything particular was noticed in Ireland itself. It was reported to Sir William Cole at Enniskillen that there was an extraordinary resort of the Irish gentry to Sir Phelim O'Neill's house, Lord Maguire being specially active in journeying to and fro. A few days later he was informed by Hugh Maguire that many of his clansmen and neighbours were recruiting actively for the King of Spain's service in Portugal. In itself this did not mean much, but great secrecy was observed, and Sir William reported what he had heard to the Lords Justices, who advised him to be vigilant. In the meantime there had been a great gathering of Roman Catholic clergy and laity at Multifarnham in Westmeath, but this was not known until later, though the Irish Council were aware that there was 'great underhand labouring among the priests, friars, and Jesuits' to prevent Strafford's disbanded soldiers from leaving the country. At the Multifarnham meeting it was debated what should be done to the Protestants, and there was much difference of opinion. The only extant account rests upon the statement of a Franciscan guardian, who was present, as reported on oath by Dr. Henry Jones. Some of those assembled, the Franciscan spokesman among them, were for turning all the Protestants out of Ireland with some portion of their goods. This had been the policy of the Spanish kings towards the Moors. Others were for killing them all, and these maintained that the mercy, such as it was, of the two Philips was misplaced,