Light Science for Leisure Hours: A series of familiar essays on scientific subjects, natural phenomena, &c.Proctor, Richard A. (Richard Anthony)
Science
Light Science for Leisure Hours: A series of familiar essays on scientific subjects, natural phenomena, &c.
Proctor, Richard A. (Richard Anthony)
Science
To many Dr. Stark’s conclusion may appear to be a natural and obvious
_sequitur_ from the evidence upon which it is founded. Admitting the
facts—and I see no reason for doubting them—it may appear at first
sight that we are bound to accept the conclusion that matrimony is
favourable to longevity. Yet the consideration of a few parallel cases
will suffice to show how small a foundation the figures I have quoted
supply for such a conclusion. What would be thought, for example,
of any of the following inferences?—Among hot-house plants there is
observed a greater variety and brilliance of colour than among those
which are kept in the open air; therefore the housing of plants
conduces to the splendour of their colouring. Or again: The average
height of Life Guardsmen is greater than that of the rest of the male
population; therefore to be a Life Guardsman conduces to tallness of
stature. Or to take an example still more closely illustrative of Dr.
Stark’s reasoning: The average longevity of noblemen exceeds that of
untitled persons; therefore to have a title is conducive to longevity;
or borrowing his words, to remain without a title ‘is more destructive
to life than the most unwholesome trades, or than residence in an
unwholesome house or district, where there has never been the most
distant attempt at sanitary improvement of any kind.’
We know that the inference is absurd in each of the above instances,
and we are able at once to show where the flaw in the reasoning lies.
We know that splendid flowers are more commonly selected for housing,
and that Life Guardsmen are chosen for their tallness, so that we are
prevented from falling into the mistake of ascribing splendour of
colour in the one instance, or tallness in the other, to the influence
of causes which have nothing whatever to do with those attributes;
nor is anyone likely to ascribe the longevity of our nobility to the
possession of a title. Yet there is nothing in any one of the above
inferences which is in reality more unsound than Dr. Stark’s inference
from the mortality bills, when the latter are considered with due
reference to the principles of interpretation which statisticians are
bound to follow.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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