Light Science for Leisure Hours: A series of familiar essays on scientific subjects, natural phenomena, &c.Proctor, Richard A. (Richard Anthony)
Science
Light Science for Leisure Hours: A series of familiar essays on scientific subjects, natural phenomena, &c.
Proctor, Richard A. (Richard Anthony)
Science
Suppose there are two horses (amongst others) engaged in a race,
and that the odds are 2 to 1 against one, and 4 to 1 against the
other-what are the odds that one of the two horses will win the race?
This case will doubtless remind my readers of an amusing sketch by
Leech, called—if I remember rightly—‘Signs of the Commission.’ Three
or four undergraduates are at a ‘wine,’ discussing matters equine. One
propounds to his neighbour the following question: I say, Charley,
if the odds are 2 to 1 against _Rataplan_, and 4 to 1 against _Quick
March_, what’s the betting about the pair?’—‘Don’t know, I’m sure,’
replies Charley; ‘but I’ll give you 6 to 1 against them.’ The absurdity
of the reply is, of course, very obvious; we see at once that the odds
cannot be heavier against a pair of horses than against either singly.
Still, there are many who would not find it easy to give a correct
reply to the question. What has been said above, however, will enable
us at once to determine the just odds in this or any similar case.
Thus-the odds against one horse being 2 to 1, his chance of winning is
equal to that of drawing one white ball out of a bag of _three_, one
only of which is white. In like manner, the chance of the second horse
is equal to that of drawing one white ball out of a bag of _five_,
one only of which is white. Now we have to find a number which is a
multiple of both the numbers three and five. Fifteen is such a number.
The chance of the first horse, modified according to the principle
explained above, is equal to that of drawing a white ball out of a bag
of fifteen of which _five_ are white. In like manner, the chance of
the second is equal to that of drawing a white ball out of a bag of
fifteen of which _three_ are white. Therefore the chance that _one of
the two_ will win is equal to that of drawing a white ball out of a bag
of fifteen balls of which _eight_ (_five_ added to _three_) are white.
There remain _seven_ black balls, and therefore the odds are 8 to 7
_on_ the pair.
To impress the method of treating such cases on the mind of the reader,
let us take the betting about three horses—say 3 to 1, 7 to 2, and 9
to 1 _against_ the three horses respectively. Then their respective
chances are equal to the chance of drawing (1) one white ball out of
_four_, one only of which is white; (2) a white ball out of _nine_,
of which two only are white; and (3) one white ball out of _ten_, one
only of which is white. The least number which contains four, nine, and
ten is 180; and the above chances, modified according to the principle
explained above, become equal to the chance of drawing a white ball out
of a bag containing 180 balls, when 45, 40, and 18 (respectively) are
white. Therefore, the chance that one of the three will win is equal
to that of drawing a white ball out of a bag containing 180 balls, of
which 103 (the sum of 45, 40, and 18) are white. Therefore, the odds
are 103 to 77 _on_ the three.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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