In practical affairs, it is felt that everything depends upon causation;
how to play the fiddle, or sail a yacht, or get one's living, or defeat
the enemy. The price of pig-iron six months hence, the prospects of the
harvest, the issue in a Coroner's Court, Home Rule and Socialism, are
all questions of causation. But, in such cases, the conception of a
cause is rarely applied in its full scientific acceptation, as the
unconditional antecedent, or 'all the conditions' (neither more nor
less) upon which the event depends. This is not because men of affairs
are bad logicians, or incapable of scientific comprehension; for very
often the reverse is conspicuously true; but because practical affairs
call for promptitude and a decisive seizing upon what is predominantly
important. How learn to play the fiddle? "Go to a good teacher." (Then,
beginning young enough, with natural aptitude and great diligence, all
may be well.) How defeat the enemy? "Be two to one at the critical
juncture." (Then, if the men are brave, disciplined, well armed and well
fed, there is a good chance of victory.) Will the price of iron improve?
"Yes: for the market is oversold": (that is, many have sold iron who
have none to deliver, and must at some time buy it back; and that will
put up the price--if the stock is not too great, if the demand does not
fall off, and if those who have bought what they cannot pay for are not
in the meanwhile obliged to sell.) These prompt and decisive judgments
(with the parenthetic considerations unexpressed) as to what is the
Cause, or predominantly important condition, of any event, are not as
good as a scientific estimate of all the conditions, when this can be
obtained; but, when time is short, the insight of trained sagacity may
be much better than an imperfect theoretical treatment of such problems.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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