A cause, however, may be under control and yet be too dangerous to
experiment with; such as the effects of a poison--though, if too
dangerous to experiment with upon man, it may be tried upon animals; or
such as a proposed change of the constitution by legislation; or even
some minor Act of Parliament, for altering the Poor Law, or regulating
the hours of labour. Here the first step must be deductive. We must ask
what consequences are to be expected from the nature of the change
(comparing it with similar changes), and from the laws of the special
circumstances in which it is to operate? And sometimes we may partially
verify our deduction by trying experiments upon a small scale or in a
mild form. There are conflicting deductions as to the probable effect of
giving Home Rule to Ireland; and experiments have been made in more or
less similar cases, as in the Colonies and in some foreign countries. As
to the proposal to make eight hours the legal limit of a day's labour in
all trades, we have all tried to forecast the consequences of this; and
by way of verification we might begin with nine hours; or we might
induce some other country to try the experiment first. Still, no
verification by experiments on a small scale, or in a mild form, or in
somewhat similar yet different circumstances, can be considered
logically conclusive. What proofs are conclusive we shall see in the
following chapters.
§ 2. To begin with the conditions of direct Induction.--An Induction is
an universal real proposition, based on observation, in reliance on the
uniformity of Nature: when well ascertained, it is called a Law. Thus,
that all life depends on the presence of oxygen is (1) an universal
proposition; (2) a real one, since the 'presence of oxygen' is not
connoted by 'life'; (3) it is based on observation; (4) it relies on the
uniformity of Nature, since all cases of life have not been examined.
Such a proposition is here called 'an induction,' when it is inductively
proved; that is, proved by facts, not merely deduced from more general
premises (except the premise of Nature's uniformity): and by the
'process of induction' is meant the method of inductive proof. The
phrase 'process of induction' is often used in another sense, namely for
the inference or judgment by which such propositions are arrived at. But
it is better to call this 'the process of hypothesis,' and to regard it
as a preliminary to the process of induction (that is, proof), as
furnishing the hypothesis which, if it can stand the proper tests,
becomes an induction or law.
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