Whewell also laid great stress upon prediction as a mark of a true
hypothesis. Thus, Astronomers predict eclipses, occultations, transits,
long beforehand with the greatest precision; and the prediction of the
place of Neptune by sheer force of deduction is one of the most
astonishing things in the history of science. Yet Mill persisted in
showing that a predicted fact is only another fact, and that it is
really not very extraordinary that an hypothesis, that happens to agree
with many known facts, should also agree with some still undiscovered.
Certainly, there seems to be some illusion in the common belief in the
probative force of prediction. Prediction surprises us, puts us off our
guard, and renders persuasion easy; in this it resembles the force of an
epigram in rhetoric. But cases can be produced in which erroneous
hypotheses have led to prediction; and Whewell himself produces them.
Thus, he says that the Ptolemaic theory was confirmed by its predicting
eclipses and other celestial phenomena, and by leading to the
construction of Tables in which the places of the heavenly bodies were
given at every moment of time. Similarly, both Newton's theory of light
and the chemical doctrine of phlogiston led to predictions which came
true.
What sound method demands in the proof of an hypothesis, then, is _not
merely that it be shown to agree with the facts, but that every other
hypothesis be excluded._ This, to be sure, may be beyond our power;
there may in some cases be no such negative proof except the exhaustion
of human ingenuity in the course of time. The present theory of colour
has in its favour the failure of Newton's corpuscular hypothesis and of
Goethe's anti-mathematical hypothesis; but the field of conjecture
remains open. On the other hand, Newton's proof that the solar system is
controlled by a central force, was supported by the demonstration that a
force having any other direction could not have results agreeing with
Kepler's second law of the planetary motions, namely, that, as a planet
moves in its orbit, the areas described by a line drawn from the sun to
the planet are proportional to the times occupied in the planet's
motion. When a planet is nearest to the sun, the area described by such
a line is least for any given distance traversed by the planet; and then
the planet moves fastest: when the planet is furthest from the sun, the
area described by such a line is greatest for an equal distance
traversed; and then the planet moves slowest. This law may be deduced
from the hypothesis of a central force, but not from any other; the
proof, therefore, as Mill says, satisfies the method of Difference.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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