The standard example of the fallacy is the old Kentish peasant's
argument that Tenterden Steeple was the cause of Goodwin Sands. Sir
Thomas More (as Latimer tells the story in one of his Sermons to
ridicule incautious inference) had been sent down into Kent as a
commissioner to inquire into the cause of the silting up of Sandwich
Haven. Among those who came to his court was the oldest inhabitant,
and thinking that he from his great age must at least have seen more
than anybody else, More asked him what he had to say as to the cause
of the sands. "Forsooth, sir," was the greybeard's answer, "I am an
old man: I think that Tenterden Steeple is the cause of Goodwin Sands.
For I am an old man, and I may remember the building of Tenterden
Steeple, and I may remember when there was no steeple at all there.
And before that Tenterden Steeple was in building, there was no
manner of speaking of any flats or sands that stopped the haven;
and, therefore, I think that Tenterden Steeple is the cause of the
destroying and decaying of Sandwich Haven."
This must be taken as Latimer meant it to be, as a ridiculous example
of a purely imbecile argument from observation, but the appeal to
experience may have more show of reason and yet be equally fallacious.
The believers in Kenelm Digby's "Ointment of Honour" appealed to
experience in support of its efficacy. The treatment was to apply the
ointment, not to the wound, but to the sword that had inflicted it, to
dress this carefully at regular intervals, and, meantime, having bound
up the wound, to leave it alone for seven days. It was observed that
many cures followed upon this treatment. But those who inferred that
the cure was due to the bandaging of the sword, failed to observe
that there was another circumstance that might have been instrumental,
namely, the exclusion of the air and the leaving of the wound
undisturbed while the natural healing processes went on. And it
was found upon further observation that binding up the wound alone
answered the purpose equally well whether the sword was dressed or
not.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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