Lombard Street: A Description of the Money MarketBagehot, Walter
History
Lombard Street: A Description of the Money Market
Bagehot, Walter
Banks and banking -- England -- London; Banks and banking -- Great Britain; Finance -- England -- London; Finance -- Great Britain
In consequence, a long-continued low rate of interest is almost
always followed by a rapid rise in that rate. Till the available
trade is found it lies idle, and can scarcely be lent at all; some
of it is not lent. But the moment the available trade is
discovered--the moment that prices have risen--the demand for loanable
capital becomes keen. For the most part, men of business must carry
on their regular trade; if it cannot be carried on without borrowing
10 per cent more capital, 10 per cent more capital they must borrow.
Very often they have incurred obligations which must be met; and if
that is so the rate of interest which they pay is comparatively
indifferent. What is necessary to meet their acceptances they will
borrow, pay for it what they may; they had better pay any price than
permit those acceptances to be dishonoured. And in less extreme
eases men of business have a fixed capital, which cannot lie idle
except at a great loss; a set of labourers which must be, if
possible, kept together; a steady connection of customers, which
they would very unwillingly lose. To keep all these, they borrow;
and in a period of high prices many merchants are peculiarly anxious
to borrow, because the augmentation of the price of the article in
which they deal makes them really see, or imagine that they see,
peculiar opportunities of profit. An immense new borrowing soon
follows upon the new and great trade, and the rate of interest rises
at once, and generally rises rapidly.
This is the surer to happen that Lombard Street is, as has been
shown before, a very delicate market. A large amount of money is
held there by bankers and by bill-brokers at interest: this they
must employ, or they will be ruined. It is better for them to reduce
the rate they charge, and compensate themselves by reducing the rate
they pay, rather than to keep up the rate of charge, if by so doing
they cannot employ all their money. It is vital to them to employ
all the money on which they pay interest. A little excess therefore
forces down the rate of interest very much. But if that low rate of
interest should cause, or should aid in causing, a great growth of
trade, the rise is sure to be quick, and is apt to be violent. The
figures of trade are reckoned by hundreds of millions, where those
of loanable capital count only by millions. A great increase in the
borrowing demands of English commerce almost always changes an
excess of loanable capital above the demand to a greater deficiency
below the demand. That deficiency causes adversity, or apparent
adversity, in trade, just as, and in the same manner, that the
previous excess caused prosperity, or apparent prosperity. It causes
a fall of price that runs through society; that fall causes a
decline of activity and a diminution of profits--a painful contraction
instead of the previous pleasant expansion.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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