Malthus, T. R. (Thomas Robert), 1766-1834; Malthusianism
quantity and facilitate the distribution of the products of agriculture;
and, to judge by results, the Norwegian Government has followed it.
Sweden,[257] as it then was, furnished a striking contrast to Norway.
Malthus had the advantage there of the earliest and most regular of
European censuses, beginning with the year 1748, and continued at
intervals first of three and then of five years. He found that there was
a large mortality, though the conditions of life were superficially the
same as in Norway. The only explanation he could see was that the size
and shape of the country, as well as its mode of government, did not so
forcibly bring home to the people the need of restraint as in Norway,
while at the same time the hindrances to good farming were even more
serious than in the smaller country. From the very contiguity and
general similarity of the two countries, they proved Malthus’ point, by
the Method of Difference, almost as well as a deliberate experiment
could have done. It was not that Norway had an absolutely small and
Sweden an absolutely large population; considerations of absolute
greatness or smallness never enter into this, if into any, economical
question. But Norway had a moderately large population in proportion to
her food, while Sweden had in the same regard an excessive population, a
population which was sparely fed even in average years, and decimated by
famine and disease in years below the average.
Russia,[258] which was the third scene of Malthus’ travels, had this in
common with Norway and Sweden, that the movement of its population was
unlike that of Central Europe, and that the eccentricity was due to a
clearly definable cause. In Norway the shape and climate of the country
and the fewness of the available occupations forced the Government and
the people to restrain rather than to encourage the increase of numbers;
in Sweden, under conditions less simple, the habits of the people
conspired with a false policy of the Government to produce an excessive
increase. In both cases we have something different from the typical
modern society of Central Europe, with its full division of labour, its
system of large factories, and its extensive substitution of machinery
for hand labour. Russia was as old-fashioned as Norway and Sweden in
this respect; and her physical vastness made her a difficult country to
know, in these days of slow communication. It is not surprising that the
statistics available in the days of Malthus were open to grave
suspicion. The death-rate was given as 1 in 60, while in Norway itself
it had not been lower than 1 in 48, and it is about 1 in 53 in England
now, yet the number of marriages and of births and the size of families
were no smaller than elsewhere.[259] These facts by themselves would
simply suggest a great rate of increase going on in the country
concerned; and Malthus allows that there is great scope for such in
Russia. But there was one other fact that strengthened his doubts about
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