Malthus, T. R. (Thomas Robert), 1766-1834; Malthusianism
country should be in the inverse ratio of its fecundity.”[307] There is,
however, no need to suppose a miracle. The fact was simply that the
place and the employments were healthy, that the people had not formed
habits of emigration, that their resources were stationary, that,
therefore, they married late, had few children, and were
long-lived.[308] The subsisting marriages were to the annual births as
12 to 1; the births were to the living population as 1 to 49; and the
number of persons above sixteen were to those below as 3 to 1.[309] This
would show that mere number of births is no criterion of the size of a
population, for it took only about half of the ordinary number of births
to keep up a population of four hundred in the parish of Leysin. In St.
Cergues the subsisting marriages were to the annual births as 4 to 1
(instead of 12 to 1 as at Leysin), the births were to the living
population as 1 to 26, and the number of persons above and below sixteen
just equal. That is to say, St. Cergues had nearly twice as many births
a year in proportion to the population, and more than twice as many
marriages; but, instead of three-fourths of its living population being
above sixteen (as at Leysin), those above and those below were equal in
number, and St. Cergues had a smaller proportion of adults than Leysin.
On the other hand, the death-rate was nearly the same; the healthiness
was nearly as great. How came it then that the population of St. Cergues
was only one hundred and seventy-one, as against the four hundred and
five of Leysin? What became of the children born? Seeing that they did
not die, and did not appear on the registers of the living, we infer
that they left their native village; that is all. The situation of the
parish of St. Cergues, on the high road from Paris to Geneva, suggested
emigration; and, as a matter of fact, the place had become, like most
highland hamlets, a breeding-place for the lowlands and the
manufacturing towns. The annual drain of adults made room for the
favoured remnant to marry and have large families. Even Leysin, though
it lay on no high road, might conceivably (says Malthus) have exchanged
its stay-at-home character for a habit of emigration, and might then
have doubled its birth-rate without raising the death-rate. It is one of
the fallacies of old statisticians to infer a large population from a
high birth-rate; in an old country, if the rate of births is high in
comparison with the number of living inhabitants, it means either many
deaths or much emigration.
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