Malthus, T. R. (Thomas Robert), 1766-1834; Malthusianism
He spends most pains in illustrating the contrast between the France
before the Revolution and the France at the Peace of Amiens. In many
ways it was fortunate that he confined himself to the Republican period.
It was the time when the moral position of France was highest, and she
was warring not for conquest but for defence. Switzerland had
exemplified the fact that Emigration does not permanently check
population, but, on the whole, encourages it. France, at the time
chosen, exemplified the fact that even the most destructive Wars have a
similar effect on the growth of numbers. What Malthus had proved more or
less deductively in regard to ancient nations he was able to show more
inductively by statistics in regard to modern. Great surprise was
expressed in the early days of this century that, in spite of her
enormous losses, France had not diminished in population. Malthus says
she had rather increased than diminished. According to the estimate of
the Constituent Assembly, which was confirmed by the calculations of
Necker, the population in 1792, before the war, was 26,000,000. In 1801
it seems, from the returns of the Prefects, to have been about
28,000,000.[320] In ten years the increase had been 2,000,000, or
200,000 a year. Yet at a medium calculation France, in addition to the
ordinary deaths, had lost by the war about 1,000,000 of men up to that
time,[321] or 100,000 a year. How, on the principles of Malthus, were
the two facts to be reconciled?
To reconcile them he shows, first, how, according to the figures given
by Frenchmen themselves, the numbers of the unmarried survivors at home
were more than enough to have kept up in case of necessity the old
number of marriages and the old rate of increase; second, how from
general principles there was a presumption in favour of a rapid increase
at such a time; and third, how the social and industrial conditions of
the French people since the Revolution were favourable to an increase of
population. First, then, he shows that the entire body of unmarried
persons was large enough in spite of the war to fill the vacancies and
keep up the old rate of increase. The body of the unmarried is formed by
the “accumulation” year by year of the numbers of persons, rising to
marriageable age, who are not married (or say briefly of the
marriageable unmarried, including widows and widowers). This
accumulation will only stop when the yearly accessions thereto are no
more than equal to the yearly mortality therein. The size of this body
will therefore vary with the character of the particular nation
considered. In the Canton de Vaud it was equal to the whole number of
the married; but in France both the mortality and the marriage rate were
higher than in Switzerland, and the unmarried were therefore a smaller
fraction of the total numbers. Assuming from the French authorities[322]
a certain birth and death-rate, and assuming from the same authorities
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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