If, now, we review with the mind’s eye the several features of Mars
which we have surveyed with the bodily one, we shall be surprised to
find to what they commit us. Suggestive as each is considered by
itself, the _ensemble_ into which they combine proves of multiplicate
force in its implication. For each turns out to fit into place in one
consistent whole, a scheme of things in which are present all the
conditions necessary to the existence and continuance of those
processes which constitute what we call life. In short, we are
conducted with a cogency, which grows as we consider it, to the
conclusion that Mars is habitable.
Two ways of appreciating this cogency are open to us. We may treat it
with the simple reasoning of common-sense, as we should a dissected map
or a piece of machinery in which we realize we are right when the
several parts at last fit together and the picture stands revealed or
the machine works. Or we may subject the evidence to quantitative
estimates for and against by the doctrine of probabilities, and thus
evaluate the chances of its being correct. Consciously or
unconsciously, this is what we are about in our decisions every day of
our lives. At the one end of the line are those skillful judgments
where the balance is so keen-edged that the least overweight on the one
side dips the scales to a conclusion. At the other extremity stand
those deductions which we usually speak of as proved, such as the law
of gravitation. But both assurances rest really upon probability and
differ only in degree. What we mean by proof of anything is that a
supposition advanced to account for it explains all the facts and is
not opposed to any of them, and that the balance of probability in
consequence is very largely in its favor.
Now, if several pieces of evidence, distinct in their origin, concur to
a given conclusion, the probability that that conclusion is correct is
far greater than what results from each alone; and mounts up soon to
something much exceeding what bettors at races call certainty odds.
However unversed the average man may be in calculating the probability,
he recognizes the fact in his dealings with his fellows by the way he
attaches weight to concurrent testimony. It is such concurrent evidence
that we have now to consider. To this end we will marshal the several
facts ascertained in a summarized list for their easier intercomparison.
These facts are:—
(1) Mars turns on its axis in 24 h. 37 m. 22.65 s. with reference to
the stars, and in 24 h. 39 m. 35.0 s. (as a mean) with regard to the
Sun. Its day, therefore, is only about forty minutes longer than ours.
(2) Its axis is tilted to the plane of its orbit by about 23° 59′ (most
recent determination, 1905). This gives the planet seasons almost the
counterpart of our own in character; but in length nearly double ours,
for
(3) Its year consists of 687 of our days, 669 of its own.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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