Memoir, Correspondence, and Miscellanies, From the Papers of Thomas Jefferson, Volume 4Jefferson, Thomas
History
Memoir, Correspondence, and Miscellanies, From the Papers of Thomas Jefferson, Volume 4
Jefferson, Thomas
United States -- Politics and government -- 1775-1783; United States -- Politics and government -- 1783-1865
In the United States it must be less than in any other part of the
commercial world; because the great mass of their inhabitants being
in responsible circumstances, the great mass of their exchanges in the
country is effected on credit, in their merchant’s ledger, who supplies
all their wants through the year, and at the end of it receives the
produce of their farms, or other articles of their industry. It is a
fact, that a farmer, with a revenue of ten thousand dollars a year, may
obtain all his supplies from his merchant, and liquidate them at the end
of the year, by the sale of his produce to him, without the intervention
of a single dollar of cash. This, then, is merely barter, and in this
way of barter a great portion of the annual produce of the United States
is exchanged without the intermediation of cash. We might safely,
then, state our medium at the minimum of one thirtieth. But what is
one thirtieth of the value of the annual produce of the industry of the
United States? Or what is the whole value of the annual produce of the
United States? An able writer and competent judge of the subject, in
1799, on as good grounds as probably could be taken, estimated it, on
the then population of four and a half millions of inhabitants, to
be thirty-seven and a half millions sterling, or one hundred and
sixty-eight and three fourths millions of dollars. See Cooper’s
Political Arithmetic, page 47. According to the same estimate, for our
present population it will be three hundred millions of dollars, one
thirtieth of which, Smith’s minimum, would be ten millions, and
one fifth, his maximum, would be sixty millions for the quantum of
circulation. But suppose, that, instead of our needing the least
circulating medium of any nation, from the circumstance before
mentioned, we should place ourselves in the middle term of the
calculation, to wit, at thirty-five millions. One fifth of this, at
the least, Smith thinks should be retained in specie, which would leave
twenty-eight millions of specie to be exported in exchange for other
commodities; and if fifteen millions of that should be returned in
productive goods, and not in articles of prodigality, that would be the
amount of capital which this operation would add to the existing mass.
But to what mass? Not that of the three hundred millions, which is only
its gross annual produce; but to that capital of which the three hundred
millions are but the annual produce. But this being gross, we may infer
from it the value of the capital by considering that the rent of lands
is generally fixed at one third of the gross produce, and is deemed its
nett profit, and twenty times that its fee simple value. The profits on
landed capital may, with accuracy enough for our purpose, be supposed
on a par with those of other capital. This would give us then for
the United States, a capital of two thousand millions, all in active
employment, and exclusive of unimproved lands lying in a great degree
dormant.
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