=1590.= It was not to be anticipated that a new science [the science of probabilities] which took its rise in games of chance, and which had long to encounter an obloquy, hardly yet extinct, due to the prevailing idea that its only end was to facilitate and encourage the calculations of gamblers, could ever have attained its present status--that its aid should be called for in every department of natural science, both to assist in discovery, which it has repeatedly done (even in pure mathematics), to minimize the unavoidable errors of observation, and to detect the presence of causes as revealed by observed events. Nor are commercial and other practical interests of life less indebted to it: wherever the future has to be forecasted, risk to be provided against, or the true lessons to be deduced from statistics, it corrects for us the rough conjectures of common sense, and decides which course is really, according to the lights of which we are in possession, the wisest for us to pursue.--CROFTON, M. W. _Encyclopedia Britannica, 9th Edition; Article “Probability.”_ =1591.= The calculus of probabilities, when confined within just limits, ought to interest, in an equal degree, the mathematician, the experimentalist, and the statesman. From the time when Pascal and Fermat established its first principles, it has rendered, and continues daily to render, services of the most eminent kind. It is the calculus of probabilities, which, after having suggested the best arrangements of the tables of population and mortality, teaches us to deduce from those numbers, in general so erroneously interpreted, conclusions of a precise and useful character; it is the calculus of probabilities which alone can regulate justly the premiums to be paid for assurances; the reserve funds for the disbursements of pensions, annuities, discounts, etc. It is under its influence that lotteries and other shameful snares cunningly laid for avarice and ignorance have definitely disappeared.--ARAGO. _Eulogy on Laplace [Baden-Powell], Smithsonian Report, 1874, p. 164._ =1592.= Men were surprised to hear that not only births, deaths, and marriages, but the decisions of tribunals, the results of popular elections, the influence of punishments in checking crime, the comparative values of medical remedies, the probable limits of error in numerical results in every department of physical inquiry, the detection of causes, physical, social, and moral, nay, even the weight of evidence and the validity of logical argument, might come to be surveyed with the lynx-eyed scrutiny of a dispassionate analysis.--HERSCHEL, J. _Quoted in Encyclopedia Britannica, 9th Edition; Article “Probability.”_