Meteorology: The Science of the AtmosphereTalman, Charles Fitzhugh
Science
Meteorology: The Science of the Atmosphere
Talman, Charles Fitzhugh
Meteorology
The subject of making forecasts from a weather map is one concerning
which some big books have been written, and it cannot be dealt with
very satisfactorily in the brief space at our disposal. There are two
cardinal rules--viz., (1) the weather has a characteristic distribution
in relation to the distribution of barometric pressure, and (2)
pressure systems, with their attendant winds and weather, move, in
a general way, from west to east--but these rules require various
qualifications and are subject to various exceptions. Thus highs and
lows generally take rather circuitous routes in getting, eventually, to
the eastward, and sometimes they break up or fade out. The high shown
on the annexed map actually moved much more south than east during the
following twenty-four hours, while the low moved up the coast; i. e.,
more north than east. These were, however, the movements expected by
the experienced forecaster.
Well-developed highs are nearly always regions of clear weather and, in
winter, of cold weather. Lows are attended by clouds and precipitation;
rising temperature usually precedes them and falling temperature
follows them. The professional forecaster recognizes several types of
pressure distribution other than ordinary highs and lows, and they,
also, have their characteristic winds and weather. The seven typical
forms of isobars, as classified many years ago by R. Abercromby, are:
Cyclone; anticyclone; secondary; V-shaped depression, or trough;
wedge of high pressure; col, or saddle, between two anticyclones; and
straight isobars. These may be combined in a variety of ways on the
weather map. The forecaster learns to classify these combinations
consciously or subconsciously, and grows familiar with their habits and
mannerisms. Forecasters spend a good deal of time in studying the files
of weather maps for past years; but the results of such studies are not
easy to reduce to definite statements. Scientific forecasting is, in
its present stage, almost wholly empirical. The dependence of weather
changes upon the phenomena of atmospheric circulation is generally
easy to make out, but the vagaries of winds and pressure are still in
the main mysterious; notwithstanding such interesting developments as
(1) the much-discussed rules of M. Gabriel Guilbert for predicting the
movements of barometric depressions from abnormalities in the force and
direction of the winds; (2) the systematic charting of “isallobars,”
or lines of equal pressure change, associated especially with the name
of Dr. Nils Ekholm; and finally (3) the hypothesis of a sharp line
of demarcation between masses of equatorial and polar air along the
so-called “polar front,” forming the basis of a system of forecasting
that originated at the Geophysical Institute of Bergen, Norway, and has
had a marked influence upon the methods of forecasters in other parts
of the world.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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