Miscellaneous Writings and Speeches — Volume 2Macaulay, Thomas Babington Macaulay, Baron
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Miscellaneous Writings and Speeches — Volume 2
Macaulay, Thomas Babington Macaulay, Baron
English essays
These are strong cases. But we have a still stronger case. Take the
whole of the third, fourth, and fifth divisions into which Mr Sadler
has portioned out the French departments. These three divisions make up
almost the whole kingdom of France. They contain seventy-nine out of the
eighty-five departments. Mr Sadler has contrived to divide them in
such a manner that, to a person who looks merely at his averages, the
fecundity seems to diminish as the population thickens. We will separate
them into two parts instead of three. We will draw the line between
the department of Gironde and that of Herault. On the one side are the
thirty-two departments from Cher to Gironde inclusive. On the other side
are the forty-six departments from Herault to Nord inclusive. In all the
departments of the former set, the population is under 132 on the square
mile. In all the departments of the latter set, it is above 132 on
the square mile. It is clear that, if there be one word of truth in Mr
Sadler's theory, the fecundity in the latter of these divisions must
be very decidedly smaller than in the former. Is it so? It is, on the
contrary, greater in all the three tables. We give the result.
The number of births to 1000 marriages is--
1st Table 2nd Table 3rd Table
In the thirty-two departments in
which there are from 86 to 132
people on the square mile....... 4210 4199 3760
In the forty-seven departments in
which there are from 132 to 417
people on the square mile........ 4250 4224 3766
This fact is alone enough to decide the question. Yet it is only one
of a crowd of similar facts. If the line between Mr Sadler's second and
third division be drawn six departments lower down, the third and fourth
divisions will, in all the tables, be above the second. If the line
between the third and fourth divisions be drawn two departments lower
down, the fourth division will be above the third in all the tables. If
the line between the fourth and fifth division be drawn two departments
lower down, the fifth will, in all the tables, be above the fourth,
above the third, and even above the second. How, then, has Mr Sadler
obtained his results? By packing solely. By placing in one compartment
a district no larger than the Isle of Wight; in another, a district
somewhat less than Yorkshire; in the third, a territory much larger than
the island of Great Britain.
By the same artifice it is that he has obtained from the census of
England those delusive averages which he brings forward with the
utmost ostentation in proof of his principle. We will examine the facts
relating to England, as we have examined those relating to France.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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