11. Newton's Rule then, to avoid mistakes, might be thus expressed:
That "we may, provisorily, assume such hypothetical cause as will
account for any given class of natural phenomena; but that when two
different classes of facts lead us to the same hypothesis, we may hold
it to be a _true cause_." And this Rule will rarely or never mislead
us. There are no instances, in which a doctrine recommended in this
manner has afterwards been discovered to be false. There have been
hypotheses which have explained many phenomena, and kept their ground
long, and have afterwards been rejected. But these have been hypotheses
which explained only one class of phenomena; and their fall took place
when another kind of facts was examined and brought into conflict with
the former. Thus the system of eccentrics and epicycles accounted
for all the observed _motions_ of the planets, and was the means of
expressing and transmitting all astronomical knowledge for two thousand
years. But then, how was it overthrown? By considering the _distances_
as well as motions of the heavenly bodies. Here was a second class of
facts; and when the system was adjusted so as to agree with the one
class, it was at variance with the other. These cycles and epicycles
could not be true, because they could not be made a just representation
of the facts. But if the measures of distance as well as of position
had conspired in pointing out the cycles and epicycles, as the paths of
the planets, the paths so determined could not have been otherwise than
their real paths; and the epicyclical theory would have been, at least
geometrically, true.
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