13. Besides this difference of speculative thought and practical
instinct which thus are, as appears to me, confounded in Mr. Mill's
philosophy, in such a way as tends to destroy all coherent views of
human knowledge, there is another set of cases to which Mr. Mill
applies the term _Induction_, and to which it appears to me to be
altogether inapplicable. He employs it to describe the mode in which
superstitious men, in ignorant ages, were led to the opinion that
striking natural events presaged or accompanied calamities. Thus he
says (i. 389), "The opinion so long prevalent that a comet or any
other unusual appearance in the heavenly regions was the precursor of
calamities to mankind, or at least to those who witnessed it; the
belief in the oracles of Delphi and Dodona; the reliance on astrology,
or on the weather-prophecies in almanacs; were doubtless inductions
supposed to be grounded on experience;" and he speaks of these
insufficient inductions being extinguished by the stronger inductions
subsequently obtained by scientific inquiry. And in like manner,
he says in another place (i. 367), "Let us now compare different
predictions: the first, that eclipses will occur whenever one planet
or satellite is so situated as to cast its shadow upon another: the
second, that they will occur whenever some great calamity is impending
over mankind."
14. Now I cannot see how anything but confusion can arise from
applying the term _Induction_ to superstitious fancies like those
here mentioned. They are not imperfect truths, but entire falsehoods.
Of that, Mr. Mill and I are agreed: how then can they exemplify the
progress towards truth? They were not collected from the facts by
seeking a law of their occurrence; but were suggested by an imagination
of the anger of superior powers shown by such deviations from the
ordinary course of nature. If we are to speak of _inductions_ to any
purpose, they must be such inductions as represent the facts, in some
degree at least. It is not meant, I presume, that these opinions are in
any degree true: to what purpose then are they adduced? If I were to
hold that my dreams predict or conform to the motions of the stars or
of the clouds, would this be an induction? It would be so, as much one
as those here so denominated: yet what but confusion could arise from
classing it among scientific truths? Mr. Mill himself has explained
(ii. 389) the way in which such delusions as the prophecies of
almanac-makers, and the like, obtain credence; namely, by the greater
effect which the positive instances produce on ordinary minds in
comparison with the negative, when the rule has once taken possession
of their thoughts. And this being, as he says, the recognized
explanation of such cases, why should we not leave them to their due
place, and not confound and perplex the whole of our investigation by
elevating them to the rank of "inductions"? The very condemnation of
such opinions is that they are not at all inductive.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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