have copied all that I could see, it is nothing strange that I should
guess those which I cannot see, would be absurd, without supposing such
a ground for guessing. The notion that the discovery of the laws and
causes of phenomena is a loose haphazard sort of guessing, which gives
"plausible" explanations, accidental coincidences, casual "harmonies,"
laws, "in some measure analogous" to the true ones, suppositions
"tenable" for a time, appears to me to be a misapprehension of the
whole nature of science; as it certainly is inapplicable to the case to
which it is principally applied by Mr. Mill.
52. There is another kind of evidence of theories, very closely
approaching to the verification of untried predictions, and to which,
apparently, Mr. Mill does not attach much importance, since he has
borrowed the term by which I have described it, _Consilience_, but
has applied it in a different manner (ii. 530, 563, 590). I have
spoken, in the _Philosophy_[281], of the _Consilience of Inductions_,
as one of the _Tests of Hypotheses_, and have exemplified it by many
instances; for example, the theory of universal gravitation, obtained
by induction from the motions of the planets, was found to explain
also that peculiar motion of the spheroidal earth which produces the
Precession of the Equinoxes. This, I have said, was a striking and
surprising coincidence which gave the theory a stamp of truth beyond
the power of ingenuity to counterfeit. I may compare such occurrences
to a case of interpreting an unknown character, in which two different
inscriptions, deciphered by different persons, had given the same
alphabet. We should, in such a case, believe with great confidence
that the alphabet was the true one; and I will add, that I believe the
history of science offers no example in which a theory supported by
such consiliences, had been afterwards proved to be false.
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