VIII. _Newton's Vera Causa._--54. Mr. Mill conceives (ii. 17) that his
own rule concerning hypotheses coincides with Newton's Rule, that the
cause assumed must be a _vera causa_. But he allows that "Mr. Whewell
... has had little difficulty in showing that his (Newton's) conception
was neither precise nor consistent with itself." He also allows that
"Mr. Whewell is clearly right in denying it to be necessary that the
cause assigned should be a cause already known; else how could we ever
become acquainted with new causes?" These points being agreed upon, I
think that a little further consideration will lead to the conviction
that Newton's Rule of philosophizing will best become a valuable guide,
if we understand it as asserting that when the explanation of two or
more different kinds of phenomena (as the revolutions of the planets,
the fall of a stone, and the precession of the equinoxes,) lead us to
_the same_ cause, such a coincidence gives a reality to the cause. We
have, in fact, in such a case, a Consilience of Inductions.
55. When Mr. Mill condemns me (ii. 24) (using, however, expressions of
civility which I gladly acknowledge,) for having recognized no mode of
Induction except that of trying hypothesis after hypothesis until one
is found which fits the phenomena, I must beg to remind the readers of
our works, that Mr. Mill himself allows (i. 363) that the process of
finding a conception which binds together observed facts "is tentative,
that it consists of a succession of guesses, many being rejected until
one at last occurs fit to be chosen." I must remind them also that I
have given a Section upon the _Tests of Hypotheses_, to which I have
just referred,--that I have given various methods of Induction, as
the _Method of Gradation_, the _Method of Natural Classification_,
the _Method of Curves_, the _Method of Means_, the _Method of Least
Squares_, the _Method of Residues_: all which I have illustrated by
conspicuous examples from the History of Science; besides which, I
conceive that what I have said of the Ideas belonging to each science,
and of the construction and explication of conceptions, will point
out in each case, in what region we are to look for the Inductive
Element in order to make new discoveries. I have already ventured to
say, elsewhere, that the methods which I have given, are as definite
and practical as any others which have been proposed, with the
great additional advantage of being the methods by which all great
discoveries in science have really been made.
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