Our Nuclear Future: Facts, Dangers and OpportunitiesTeller, Edward
Science
Our Nuclear Future: Facts, Dangers and Opportunities
Teller, Edward
Nuclear energy -- Popular works; Nuclear weapons; Radioactivity -- Physiological effect
One can say a little more about the effects of scientific and
technological discoveries on the relations among the people of the
globe. With added discoveries raw materials will no longer be needed
with the old urgency. For most substances substitutes are being found.
This may make for greater economic independence.
On the other hand, new possibilities will present themselves. We shall
learn how to control the air and how to cultivate the oceans. This will
call for cooperation and more interdependence.
The dangers from radioactive by-products will act in a similar
direction. The radioactive cloud released from a reactor accident may be
more dangerous than a nuclear explosion. Such a cloud will not stop at
national boundaries. Some proper form of international responsibility
will have to be developed.
What effect the existence of nuclear weapons will have upon the
coexistence of nations is a question less understood and less explored
than any other affecting our future. Most people turn away from it with
a feeling of terror. It is not easy to look at the question with calm
reason and with little emotion.
A few predictions seem disturbing but are highly probable:
Nuclear secrets will not keep. Knowledge of nuclear weapons will spread
among nations—at least as long as independent nations exist.
Prohibition will not work. Laws or agreements which start with the word
“don’t” can be broken and will always be broken. If there is hope, it
must lie in the direction of agreements which start with the word “do.”
The idea of “Atoms for Peace” succeeded because it resulted in concrete
action.
An all-out nuclear war between the major powers could occur but we may
have good hope that it will not occur if we remain prepared to strike
back. No one will want to provoke the devastation of his own country.
Atomic bombs may be used against cities. But there will be no military
advantage in destroying cities. In a short and highly mobile war neither
centers of supply and communication nor massive means of production will
count. If cities are bombed, this will be done primarily for reasons of
psychological warfare. We must be and we are prepared for this kind of
war but only as a measure of retaliation. There is good reason to
believe that as long as we are prepared for all-out war, our civilian
population will not suffer from a nuclear attack.
The certainty of a counterblow gives real protection against all-out
war. No such protection exists against wars limited in territory and in
aims. In the history of mankind such wars have been most frequent. There
is no indication that these limited wars have ended. We must be prepared
for these conflicts with effective and mobile units, and this requires
the use of nuclear firepower.
Nuclear weapons will certainly have a profound effect upon such limited
warfare. Not all of this effect need be and indeed it must not be in the
direction of greater devastation.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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