Our Nuclear Future: Facts, Dangers and OpportunitiesTeller, Edward
Science
Our Nuclear Future: Facts, Dangers and Opportunities
Teller, Edward
Nuclear energy -- Popular works; Nuclear weapons; Radioactivity -- Physiological effect
The weather is no longer quite as unpredictable as it used to be. Yet we
are hardly ever sure of it even a few hours in advance. One week is
about the limit of the period of any prediction. Where the best men lack
knowledge untrammeled fantasy has a field day. Weather has so far
remained a safe topic of conversation and of speculation.
Nuclear explosions have, of course, been made responsible for the
weather—for any kind of unusual weather. Be it rain or drought or a hard
season of hurricanes—the nuclear tests are dragged in. The weather
bureau says: no. But then—the weather bureau has not always been
correct. Indeed it would be a miracle if the popular talk and the
popular press would not have seen some connection between atomic
explosions and the wayward behavior of the seasons.
In one case—and to our knowledge only in one case—there has occurred a
chain of events starting with a nuclear test and ending in a copious and
unusual downpour. In the spring of 1955 a test shot of moderate size was
fired in Nevada. At the same time the last storm of the season was
blowing itself out in California. According to the usual rules of
meteorology the radioactive cloud should have been carried east by the
steady westerly winds which blow over the temperate zone. But this time
the cloud was caught up by the swirl of the dying California storm and
some of the radioactivity was carried to the west coast.
Hours after the explosion radioactive rain began to fall in California.
The activity was weak enough and did not give rise to any worry. But a
remarkable thing happened. As the active cloud arrived over California
the storm revived. It developed into an abundant rain which is not usual
at that place and time. Did we—quite unintentionally—do something about
the weather?
The weather bureau said: no. One must certainly admit that this single
case proves nothing. Only greatly improved methods of weather
observation and weather prediction would make it possible to decide if
such a chain of events consists of the strong links of cause and effect
or else of a simple sequence of haphazard occurrences.
Even though our knowledge is incomplete there is at least one simple
fact which should be borne in mind. All the energy in that Nevada
explosion was not quite sufficient to evaporate the water droplets in a
cloud one mile broad, one mile wide, and one mile deep. This is not a
very big rain cloud. Such a cloud would give about one third of an inch
of rain water over one square mile—not an impressive amount. Even the
biggest hydrogen bomb would give only energy enough to evaporate a cloud
ten miles by ten miles and towering to the top of the “boiling” portion
of our air, which we call the troposphere. This would give roughly three
inches of rain over a hundred square miles—a more impressive amount but
vanishing in the vastness of the Pacific Ocean.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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