Our Nuclear Future: Facts, Dangers and OpportunitiesTeller, Edward
Science
Our Nuclear Future: Facts, Dangers and Opportunities
Teller, Edward
Nuclear energy -- Popular works; Nuclear weapons; Radioactivity -- Physiological effect
Actually, cooled moist air has been used for many decades to make the
tracks of fast charged particles visible. In one of the photographs you
can see a picture of such “vapor trails.” It is a photograph through an
apparatus called the Wilson Cloud Chamber. The myriads of radioactive
disintegrations in the debris of a nuclear explosion can give vapor
trails which coalesce into a real cloud. In this way weather might be
influenced. (See pictures 11 and 12.)
In spite of all this it remains highly probable that testing of nuclear
explosions, as practiced at present, does not influence the weather.
Radioactivity does furnish an opportunity for droplets to form. But
other abundant sources are also available for droplet formation. Dust,
smoke and many forms of air pollution will do the trick. Foam scattered
from ocean waves evaporates and leaves a speck of salt behind. This
particle of salt may be carried by the winds for many miles and may
eventually become the germ around which a new drop will condense. The
cosmic rays by which we are bombarded give rise to vapor trails similar
to those produced by the radioactive decay products. Among the many
processes of nature and the usual by-products of civilization the few
atomic tests do not play an important role. This statement can stand,
not as a certainty, but as a very good guess.
Among the many surprises that the future holds one may be closely
connected with the weather. In the age of the airplane we are getting
more and more information about the air masses around us. Air travel
demands this information and also furnishes it. New techniques, such as
radar, can detect the formation of a cloud and can measure the size of
droplets at a great distance. In fact the information received is so
plentiful that one may doubt whether we can properly understand it and
utilize it.
Fortunately we no longer need to rely exclusively on our own brains.
Human thought is a remarkable thing but it is slow. The modern computing
machines, the “electronic brains,” are simpletons as compared to the
apparatus which each of us wears in his skull. But the electronic
computers have one advantage: they are fast. Soon they will be a million
times as fast as our mental processes. The expression “fast as thought”
is dated—it is a contemporary of the horse-and-buggy.
The electronic machines can digest weather information as fast as it is
received. Some progress has already been made. In a few years all
weather predictions may be machine-made.
This need not mean that weather can be predicted with certainty or for a
long time ahead. The trigger processes which, starting from an
insignificant and unnoticed spot of turbulence, can grow into the
dimensions of a cyclone will set a limit to any art of prediction.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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