To say that A is “necessarily” followed by B is thus to say no more
than that there is some general rule, exemplified in a very large
number of observed instances, and falsified in none, according to which
events such as A are followed by events such as B. We must not have any
notion of “compulsion”, as if the cause _forced_ the effect to happen.
A good test for the imagination in this respect is the reversibility
of causal laws. We can just as often infer backwards as forwards.
When you get a letter, you are justified in inferring that somebody
wrote it, but you do not feel that your receiving it _compelled_
the sender to write it. The notion of compulsion is just as little
applicable to effects as to causes. To say that causes compel effects
is as misleading as to say that effects compel causes. Compulsion is
anthropomorphic: a man is compelled to do something when he wishes to
do the opposite, but except where human or animal wishes come in the
notion of compulsion is inapplicable. Science is concerned merely with
what happens, not with what _must_ happen.
When we look for invariable rules of sequence in nature, we find that
they are not such as common sense sets up. Common sense says: thunder
follows lightning, waves at sea follow wind, and so on. Rules of
this sort are indispensable in practical life, but in science they
are all only approximate. If there is any finite interval of time,
however short, between the cause and the effect, something may happen
to prevent the effect from occurring. Scientific laws can only be
expressed in differential equations. This means that, although you
cannot tell what may happen after a finite time, you can say that, if
you make the time shorter and shorter, what will happen will be more
and more nearly according to such-and-such a rule. To take a very
simple case: I am now in this room; you cannot tell where I shall be
in another second, because a bomb may explode and blow me sky-high,
but if you take any two small fragments of my body which are now very
close together, you can be sure that, after _some_ very short finite
time, they will still be very close together. If a second is not short
enough, you must take a shorter time; you cannot tell in advance how
short a time you may have to take, but you may feel fairly certain that
there is a short enough time.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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