confirmatory facts; but there is a difference in one circumstance
according as one or the other theory is employed to explain them.
In the case of the Huyghenian doctrine, the intervals between the
bright stripes ought to appear _absolutely black_; in the other,
_half bright_, when so viewed through a prism. This curious case of
difference was tried as soon as the opposing consequences of the two
theories were noted by M. Fresnel, and the result is stated by him to
be decisive in favour of that theory which makes light to consist in
the vibrations of an elastic medium.
(219.) Theories are best arrived at by the consideration of general
laws; but most securely verified by comparing them with particular
facts, because this serves as a verification of the whole train
of induction, from the lowest term to the highest. But then, the
comparison must be made with facts purposely selected so as to include
every variety of case, not omitting extreme ones, and in sufficient
number to afford every reasonable probability of detecting error. A
single numerical coincidence in a final conclusion, however striking
the coincidence or important the subject, is not sufficient. Newton’s
theory of sound, for example, leads to a numerical expression for the
actual velocity of sound, differing but little from that afforded by
the correct theory afterwards explained by Lagrange, and (when certain
considerations not contemplated by him are allowed for) agreeing with
fact; yet this coincidence is no verification of Newton’s view of the
general subject of sound, which is defective in an essential point,
as the great geometer last named has very satisfactorily shown. This
example is sufficient to inspire caution in resting the verification of
theories upon any thing but a very extensive comparison with a great
mass of observed facts.
(220.) But, on the other hand, when a theory will bear the test
of such extensive comparison, it matters little how it has been
originally framed. However strange and, at first sight, inadmissible
its postulates may appear, or however singular it may seem that
such postulates should have been fixed upon,--if they only lead
us, by legitimate reasonings, to conclusions in exact accordance
with numerous observations purposely made under such a variety of
circumstances as fairly to embrace the whole range of the phenomena
which the theory is intended to account for, we cannot refuse to admit
them; or if we still hesitate to regard them as demonstrated truths, we
cannot, at least, object to receive them as temporary substitutes for
such truths, until the latter shall become known. If they suffice to
explain all the phenomena known, it becomes highly improbable that they
will not explain more; and if all their conclusions we have tried have
proved correct, it is probable that others yet untried will be found so
too; so that _in rejecting them altogether, we should reject all the
discoveries to which they may lead_.
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