(226.) Physical data intended to be employed as elements of calculation
in extensive theories, require to be known with a much greater degree
of exactness than any single observation possesses, not only on account
of their dignity and importance, as affording the means of representing
an indefinite multitude of facts; but because, in the variety of
combinations that may arise, or in the changes that circumstances may
undergo, cases will occur when any trifling error in one of the data
may become enormously magnified in the final result to be compared
with observation. Thus, in the case of an eclipse of the sun, when
the moon enters very obliquely upon the sun’s disc, a trifling error
in the diameter of either the sun or moon may make a great one in the
time when the eclipse shall be announced to commence. It ought to
be remarked, that these are, of all others, the conjunctures where
observations are most available for the determination of data; for,
by the same rule that a small change in the data will, in such cases,
produce a great one in the thing to be observed; so, _vice versâ_, any
moderate amount of error, committed in an observation undertaken for
ascertaining its value, can produce but a very trifling one in the
_reverse_ calculation from which the data come to be determined by
observation. This remark extends to every description of physical data
in every department of science, and is never to be overlooked when the
object in view is the determination of data with the last degree of
precision.
(227.) But how, it may be asked, are we to ascertain _by_ observation,
data more precise than observation itself? How are we to conclude the
value of that which we do not see, with greater certainty than that
of quantities which we actually see and measure? It is the number of
observations which may be brought to bear on the determination of data
that enables us to do this. Whatever error we may commit in a single
determination, it is highly improbable that we should always err the
same way, so that, when we come to take an average of a great number of
determinations, (unless there be some constant cause which gives a bias
one way or the other,) we cannot fail, at length, to obtain a very near
approximation to the truth, and, even allowing a bias, to come much
nearer to it than can fairly be expected from any single observation,
liable to be influenced by the same bias.
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