(321.) But to estimate justly the effects of causes now in action in
geology is no easy task. There is no _à priori_ or deductive process by
which we can estimate the amount of the annual erosion, for instance,
of a continent by the action of meteoric agents, rain, wind, frost,
&c., nor the quantity of destruction produced on its coasts by the
direct violence of the sea, nor the quantity of lava thrown up _per
annum_ by volcanoes over the whole surface of the earth, nor any
similar effect. And to consult experience on all such points is a
slow and painful process if rightly gone into, and a very fallible
one if only partially executed. Much, then, at present must be left
to opinion, and to that sort of clear-judging tact which sometimes
anticipates experience; but this ought not to stand in the way of our
making every possible effort to obtain accurate information on such
points, by which alone geology can be rendered, if not an experimental
science, at least a science of that kind of active observation which
forms the nearest approach to it, where actual experiment is impossible.
(322.) Let us take, for example, the question, “What is the actual
direction in which changes of relative level are taking place between
the existing continents and seas?” If we consult partial experience,
that is, _all_ the information that we possess respecting ancient
sea-marks, soundings, &c., we shall only find ourselves bewildered in
a mass of conflicting, because imperfect, evidence. It is obvious that
the only way to decide the point is to ascertain, by very precise and
careful observations at proper stations on coasts, selected at points
where there exist natural marks not liable to change in the course of
at least a century, the true elevation of such marks above the _mean_
level of the sea, and to multiply these stations sufficiently over the
whole globe to be capable of affording real available knowledge. Now,
this is not a very easy operation (considering the accuracy required);
for the _mean_ level of the sea can be determined by no single
observation, any more than the mean height of the barometer at a given
station, being affected both by periodical and accidental fluctuations
due to tides, winds, waves, and currents. Yet if an instrument adapted
for the purpose were constructed, and rendered easily attainable, and
rules for its use carefully drawn up, there is little doubt we should
soon (by the industry of observers scattered over the world) be in
possession of a most valuable mass of information, which could not fail
to afford a point of departure for the next generation, and furnish
ground for the only kind of argument which ever can be conclusive on
such subjects.
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