If this view be well founded, then the advance of modern civilization
would tend to furnish a more and more favorable soil for the spread of
this disease. This, unfortunately, is about the conclusion to which we
are being most unwillingly driven. Almost every other known infectious
disease is diminishing, both in frequency and in fatality, under
civilization. Pneumonia alone defies our onslaughts. In fact, if
statistics are to be taken at their surface-value, we are facing the
appalling situation of an apparently marked increase both in its
prevalence and in its mortality. For a number of years past, ever since,
in fact, accurate statistics began to be kept, pneumonia has been listed
as the second heaviest cause of death, its only superior being
tuberculosis.
About ten years ago it began to be noticed that the second competitor in
the race of death was overtaking its leader, and this ghastly rivalry
continued until about three years ago pneumonia forged ahead. In some
great American cities it now occupies the bad eminence of the most fatal
single disease on the death-lists.
The situation is, however, far from being as serious and alarming as it
might appear, simply from this bald statement of statistics. First of
all, because the forging ahead of pneumonia has been due in greater
degree to the falling behind of tuberculosis than to any actual advance
on its part. The death-rate of tuberculosis within the last thirty years
has diminished between thirty and forty per cent; and pneumonia at its
worst has never yet equaled the old fatality of tuberculosis.
Furthermore, all who have carefully studied the subject are convinced
that much of this apparent increase is due to more accurate and careful
diagnosis. Up to ten years or so ago it was generally believed that
pneumonia was rare in young children. Now, however, that we make the
diagnosis with a microscope, we discover that a large percentage of the
cases of capillary bronchitis, broncho-pneumonia, and acute congestion
of the lung in children are due to the presence of the pneumococcus.
Similarly, at the other end of the line, deaths that were put down to
bronchitis, asthma, heart failure, yes, even to old age, have now been
shown on bacteriological examination to be due to this ubiquitous imp of
malevolence; so that, on the whole, all that we are probably justified
in saying is that pneumonia is not decreasing under civilization. This
is not to be wondered at, inasmuch as the inevitable crowding and
congestion which accompanies civilization, especially in its derivative
sense of "citification," tends to foster it in every way, both by
multiplying the opportunities for infection and lowering the resisting
power of the crowded masses.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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