We have, however, not only to consider the relative goodness of
different effects, but also the relative probability of their being
attained. A less good, that is more likely to be attained, is to be
preferred to a greater, that is less probable, if the difference in
probability is great enough to outweigh the difference in goodness.
And this fact seems to entitle us to assert the general truth of three
principles, which ordinary moral rules are apt to neglect. (1) That
a lesser good, for which any individual has a strong preference (if
only it be a good, and not an evil), is more likely to be a proper
object for him to aim at, than a greater one, which he is unable to
appreciate. For natural inclination renders it immensely more easy to
attain that for which such inclination is felt. (2) Since almost every
one has a much stronger preference for things which closely concern
himself, it will in general be right for a man to aim rather at goods
affecting himself and those in whom he has a strong personal interest,
than to attempt a more extended beneficence. Egoism is undoubtedly
superior to Altruism as a doctrine of means: in the immense majority of
cases the best thing we can do is to aim at securing some good in which
we are concerned, since for that very reason we are far more likely to
secure it. (3) Goods, which can be secured in a future so near as to be
called ‘the present,’ are in general to be preferred to those which,
being in a further future, are, for that reason, far less certain of
attainment. If we regard all that we do from the point of view of
its rightness, that is to say as a mere means to good, we are apt to
neglect one fact, at least, which is certain; namely, that a thing that
is really good in itself, if it exist now, has precisely the same value
as a thing of the same kind which may be caused to exist in the future.
Moreover moral rules, as has been said, are, in general, not directly
means to positive goods but to what is necessary for the existence of
positive goods; and so much of our labour must in any case be devoted
to securing the continuance of what is thus a mere means--the claims of
industry and attention to health determine the employment of so large
a part of our time, that, in cases where choice is open, the certain
attainment of a present good will in general have the strongest claims
upon us. If it were not so, the whole of life would be spent in merely
assuring its continuance; and, so far as the same rule were continued
in the future, that for the sake of which it is worth having, would
never exist at all.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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