Railroads: Rates and RegulationsRipley, William Zebina
History
Railroads: Rates and Regulations
Ripley, William Zebina
Railroads -- Freight -- Rates -- United States; Railroads and state -- United States
A railroad theoretically presents a clear example of an industry
subject to the law of increasing returns--that is to say, an industry
in which the cost of operation grows less rapidly than the volume
of business done. Each ton of freight added to the existing traffic
costs relatively less to haul. From this it follows, obviously, that
the net returns increase more than proportionately with the expansion
of traffic. This may be demonstrated by a simple calculation. It has
already been shown that only about two-thirds of the total expenditures
of a railroad are applied to operation, the remaining third being
devoted to capital account. Moreover, of these two-thirds of the total
applied to operating outlay, only about one-half responds to any change
in the tonnage, the other half being constant up to a certain point.
Otherwise expressed, an increase of one per cent, in traffic and,
therefore, of revenue, produces an increase in expense of only one-half
of two-thirds of one per cent.[50] Two-thirds of the entire increment
of revenue goes to profit. Carry this increase further and the effect
is more striking. Suppose traffic to grow tenfold. The former outlay
being $100 for a given volume of business, would be divided according
to our rule as follows: one-third for fixed charges, one-third for
constant operating outlay and one-third for variable expenses. With ten
times as much traffic, only the last group of outgoes will expand. One
thousand dollars revenue would therefore become available under the new
conditions, to pay the same fixed charges as well as constant operating
costs. The total outgo would thus become $33 plus $33 plus $330, or
$396 in all. Almost two-thirds of the increment of revenue still
remains as profit. It might well happen that such an expansion could
not ensue without large increases in the capital and plant, as has
already been noted; but up to that point this calculation would hold
good. The following statement varying but slightly from our foregoing
assumptions, illustrates the principle.[51] Let the distribution of
expenditures for given conditions, producing $100 of revenue, be these,
viz.:
Operating expenses $ 67
Fixed charges $ 28
----
$ 95
Profits for dividends $ 5
----
$100
Now assume an increase of ten per cent. in the traffic and consequently
in the revenue; but assume also that the average _extra_ cost per
unit, of the new business, is only forty per cent. as much as for the
preëxisting tonnage. Were the added cost of each ton mile as great as
before, the operating expenses would rise by the full ten per cent. of
$67. But on Webb's assumption, they will rise by only forty per cent.
of ten per cent. The new account would then stand thus:
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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