Readings in Money and Banking: Selected and AdaptedPhillips, Chester Arthur
General
Readings in Money and Banking: Selected and Adapted
Phillips, Chester Arthur
Banks and banking; Banks and banking -- United States; Money
There still remains one seeming way of escape from the conclusion that
the sole effect of an increase in the quantity of money in circulation
will be to increase prices. It may be claimed--in fact it has been
claimed--that such an increase results in an increased volume of trade.
We now proceed to show that (except during transition periods) the
volume of trade, like the velocity of circulation of money, is
independent of the quantity of money. An inflation of the currency
cannot increase the product of farms and factories, nor the speed of
freight trains or ships. The stream of business depends on natural
resources and technical conditions, not on the quantity of money. The
whole machinery of production, transportation, and sale is a matter of
physical capacities and technique, none of which depend on the quantity
of money. The only way in which the quantities of trade appear to be
affected by the quantity of money is by influencing trades accessory to
the creation of money and to the money metal. An increase of gold money
will, as has been noted, bring with it an increase in the trade in gold
objects. It will also bring about an increase in the sales of gold
mining machinery, in gold miners' services, in assaying apparatus and
labor. These changes may entail changes in associated trades. Thus if
more gold ornaments are sold, fewer silver ornaments and diamonds may be
sold. Again the issue of paper money may affect the paper and printing
trades, the employment of bank and government clerks, etc. In fact,
there is no end to the minute changes in the _Q_'s which the changes
mentioned, and others, might bring about. But from a practical or
statistical point of view they amount to nothing, for they could not add
to nor subtract one-tenth of 1 per cent. from the general aggregate of
trade. Only a very few _Q_'s would be appreciably affected, and those
few very insignificant.
We conclude, therefore, that a change in the quantity of money will not
appreciably affect the quantities of goods sold for money.
Since, then, a doubling in the quantity of money: (1) will normally
double deposits subject to check in the same ratio, and (2) will not
appreciably affect either the velocity of circulation of money or of
deposits or the volume of trade, it follows necessarily and
mathematically that the level of prices must double. While, therefore,
the equation of exchange, of itself, asserts no causal relations between
quantity of money and price level, any more than it asserts a causal
relation between any other two factors, yet, when we take into account
conditions known quite apart from that equation, viz., that a change in
_M_ produces a proportional change in _M'_, and no changes in _V_, _V'_,
or the _Q_'s, there is no possible escape from the conclusion that a
change in the quantity of money (_M_) must _normally_ cause a
proportional change in the price level (the _p_'s).
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