Readings in Money and Banking: Selected and AdaptedPhillips, Chester Arthur
General
Readings in Money and Banking: Selected and Adapted
Phillips, Chester Arthur
Banks and banking; Banks and banking -- United States; Money
But the working of the compensated dollar would not be in the least
analogous to the operation of gold inflation or contraction, even as
Professor Taussig supposes it. The plan always works cumulatively
_toward_ par, never cumulatively _away from_ par. One often sees a wagon
with its wheels on a street-railway track having some difficulty getting
off; the front wheels have to be turned at a large angle before they are
forced out of their grooves; then of a sudden they jump away. This is
analogous to the delayed "flare-up" of prices which Professor Taussig
supposes under the influence of a long continued decline or increase in
the gold supply. But if the driver instead of trying to turn out is
trying to keep the wagon on the track he will pull the horse back at
every tendency to turn to the right or left. The more the horse turns to
the right the harder will the driver endeavor to turn him to the left.
Clearly the effect of the driver's efforts will be to avert or delay,
not to aggravate or hasten, any jumping out of the grooves which other
causes may tend to produce.
In other words, if it takes as much time as Professor Taussig fears for
a pressure on prices to move them, then so much the more certain is it
that, under the plan, deviations from par, though they may be
persistent, cannot be either rapid or wide. A long continued small
deviation gives plenty of time for the counter pressure exerted by the
compensating device to accumulate and head off any wide deviation.
Suppose that, following Professor Taussig's ideas, some cause such as an
increase of gold production would, in the absence of the compensated
dollar plan, gradually lift the price level as follows: during the first
year, not at all; during the second year, 1 per cent.; during the third
year, 2 per cent.; after which would come a "flare-up" of 10 per cent.
We may suppose then that, if the plan were in operation during the first
year, there being no deviation visible, there would be no change in the
weight of the dollar. After the first month of the second year when
prices were 1 per cent. above par, the weight of the dollar would
according to the plan be raised 1 per cent. If this were unavailing, so
that in the second month the deviation were still 1 per cent., the
weight of the dollar would be again increased 1 per cent. Every month,
as long as the deviation of 1 per cent. lasts, the weight of the dollar
would receive an _additional_ 1 per cent. Unless some effect were
produced on the supposed original schedule of deviations, the weight of
the dollar of the second year would be increased 12 per cent., and by
the end of the third year by 24 per cent. more, or 36 per cent. in all.
But it is clear that by this time, with so swollen a dollar, the
"flare-up" scheduled for the fourth year could not occur, but that a
counter movement would set in--in fact, would have set in long before
the dollar became so heavily counterpoised. Nor could the result of the
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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