Readings in Money and Banking: Selected and AdaptedPhillips, Chester Arthur
General
Readings in Money and Banking: Selected and Adapted
Phillips, Chester Arthur
Banks and banking; Banks and banking -- United States; Money
7. "_It would be inadequate to check rapid and large changes of the
price level._" Owing to the narrow limits, _e. g._, 1 per cent. as
stated, imposed on the monthly adjustments, it is quite true that a
sudden and strong tendency of prices to rise or fall could not be
completely checked. If prices were to rise 8 per cent. per annum and the
plan permitted no more rapid shift than 6 per cent. per annum, this
would leave only 2 per cent. per annum uncorrected, or only one-fourth
the rate at which prices would rise if wholly uncorrected. But half (or
in this illustration three-quarters of) a loaf is better than no bread.
Moreover, such extreme cases are rare and when they occur there is all
the keener need for mitigation even if it be somewhat inadequate.
Ultimately, of course, after the rapid spurt has abated, the
counterpoise, in its relentless pursuit, would overtake the escaped
price level and bring it back to par.
8. "_The correction always comes too late._" It is objected that the
plan does not make any correction until actual deviation has occurred,
and so the remedy always lags behind the disease. It is true that the
corrections follow the deviations. They could not precede them unless we
foreknew what the deviations were to be; and we could not afford to
entrust the work of guessing to government officials. In this respect,
as in others, the plan does not attain perfection; yet it is infinitely
better than the present plan, which leaves the standard haphazard. It is
also pointed out that after the correction is applied it may happen that
prices will take the opposite turn, in which case the remedy actually
aggravates the disease. But, taking the extremely fitful course of
prices since 1896 and correcting it according to the plan, month by
month, as shown in the _Quarterly Journal of Economics_ diagram, we find
that in nine cases out of ten the opposite is true. Even in the few
remaining cases the deflections were very slight and were, of course,
soon corrected immediately after the following adjustments. If the
corrections are sufficiently frequent, it is impossible not to maintain,
in general, an extremely steady adjustment.
When steering an automobile the chauffeur can only correct the deviation
from its intended course _after_ the deviation has occurred; yet, by
making these corrections sufficiently frequent, he can keep his course
so steady that the aberrations are scarcely perceptible. There seems no
reason why the monetary automobile cannot be driven almost equally
straight.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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