Readings in Money and Banking: Selected and AdaptedPhillips, Chester Arthur
General
Readings in Money and Banking: Selected and Adapted
Phillips, Chester Arthur
Banks and banking; Banks and banking -- United States; Money
Professor Fisher has predicted that prices will rise further. He is
disposed to believe that there will be not only a rise, but that there
will be a considerable rise. I hesitate very greatly to enter the domain
of prediction. I am inclined to believe that the rise in prices will not
cease for the next decade; but whether it will be considerable or
moderate or negligible in extent, I should not venture to say.
Predictions concerning the output from the mines are to be taken with
the greatest caution. We all recall the predictions which Suess made in
1892. The distinguished geologist believed that the prospects of an
increased production of gold were of the slightest, and that the world
must fall back on the use of both metals. How different the course of
events has been from that which he predicted! There are those who
believe that the output of gold, so far from continuing to increase, has
reached, or is approaching, its maximum. For myself, I should not be
surprised if there were a cessation in growth, and should certainly be
surprised if there were not a relaxation in the rate of growth.
Further: it deserves to be borne in mind that the total supply of the
precious metals is now so much greater than it was twenty years ago that
the same annual increment will have much less effect on prices. This is
the familiar consequence of the durability of the precious metals....
Finally, a circumstance should be borne in mind which bears not only
upon the intrinsic desirability of a regulative plan, but also upon the
attitude of the general public and the consequent political and
industrial possibilities. Economists are familiar with the difference
between the phrase which they use in describing the new conditions, and
that which is current in popular discussion. The economists speak of the
"rise in prices"; the general public speaks of the "high cost of
living." The difference in phraseology is not due simply to variation of
the point of view. It results from the fact that very different
phenomena are had in mind by the two sets of persons. The economist is
thinking and reasoning about the change which has been of special
interest for him--the general rise in prices. The man on the street is
thinking about the exceptional rise in the prices of one important set
of commodities. Any one who will examine with care the index numbers of
our Bureau of Labor will see what a marked rise, much beyond that of the
general index number, has appeared in the prices of farm products, and
especially in the prices of meat. That special advance has taken place
within the last three or four years. It is precisely within this period
that general attention has been turned to rising prices. What the public
has had chiefly in mind has been the commodities of wide consumption.
This, I believe, is the main cause of labor unrest....
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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