The general prevalence of the premium on New York exchange is, as we have seen, accounted for in part by the use of clearing-house loan certificates in settling balances between banks and by the delay in remitting in New York funds upon items collected for other banks. It seems probable, however, that, taking the country as a whole, the course of payments was favorable to the New York banks. At the beginning of November withdrawals for crop-moving purposes have in recent years begun to diminish, except to the South, and movements of money from eastern centers are distinctly in favor of New York at that season of the year. If this were indeed the case in 1907, it affords still another reason for thinking that the New York banks might have met the crisis successfully without restricting payments. They would probably have been obliged to meet only withdrawals arising from lack of confidence and not real needs for crop-moving purposes, such as would have increased the difficulties of the situation had the crisis begun at the beginning of September. Finally, it should be noted that the restriction of cash payments to depositors and the currency premium seem to have increased the demand for New York exchange. Only in that city was it possible to buy any considerable quantity of money. Many banks in various parts of the country purchased gold and currency at a premium in New York and, instead of drawing on their own balances, then entered their home market as purchasers of exchange which was remitted in payment. In the few instances where exchange was below par the currency premium was a more direct influence; but exchange could not have dropped to the low figures recorded in 1893 in the case of Chicago [$30 discount per $1,000], because the Chicago banks in 1907 did not maintain payments among themselves as they had done on previous occasions. Exchange was at a discount only in those cities where the course of payments was so strongly against New York that practically all the banks found their balances in that city increasing. Chicago might have been expected to belong to this group, but its banks made extensive use of bills derived from grain exports to secure gold which was shipped directly to them. In general, exchange was at a discount, or at par only, in the Southern States, the banks of which, by means of cotton sales, are normally in position to draw money from the northeastern part of the country during the late autumn. In conclusion, it should perhaps be pointed out that the quoted rates of exchange were often without much significance. The ordinary course of dealings was so completely disorganized in many places that the rates were purely nominal, representing little or no actual transactions. FOOTNOTES: [96] Frank A. Vanderlip, _Modern Banking_, Three Addresses delivered at Chautauqua, New York, August, 1911, pp. 17-29. The National City Bank. New York. 1911 [?].