The possibility of South Korea financing a program of investment
and rehabilitation out of the proceeds of exports is not worth
considering in detail. Although South Korea is primarily
agricultural, it is unlikely that it will be able to export
foodstuff, even under the most favorable circumstances. Deterioration
of agriculture, due to accumulated soil deficiencies and erosion,
and an increase of population from 15 to 20 million since 1940
indicate that no export surplus of food can be expected in the next
several years. The only exports which may be derived from South Korea
are small amounts of such minerals as tungsten, gold and copper,
some ginseng root, and marine products such as agar-agar. The most
optimistic estimate is $10 million worth of exports by 1950. Much
more than $10 million earned by Korean exports will be needed to
finance essential raw material imports, and there is no prospect of
any capital development out of current production.
_Inflation_
The Korean inflation is not as serious as the Chinese inflation
in rate of price increase, but its causes are less susceptible to
control by measures taken within Korea. Price increases have been
due to physical inability to produce goods, and not to unrestrained
issuance of paper currency. Prices of consumers’ goods in various
categories have risen 200 to 700 times over the 1937 level. The
official rise price, however, has risen only 70 times, and about
80 per cent of the calorie requirement for the urban population
is available at the official price. A runaway inflation has not
yet occurred in South Korea, because (_a_) the Military Government
has restrained the issuance of currency by keeping governmental
expenditures and local occupation costs at reasonable levels, and
(_b_) because cannibalization and the use of Japanese stocks have
kept some industry going, and (_c_) the forcible collection of rice
at harvest time has brought in sufficient food to maintain, with
“disease an unrest” imports, an adequate official ration in the
cities without the use of large inflationary payments to the farmers.
Highly inflationary factors such as the exhaustion of raw material
stocks, cumulative breakdowns in public services and transportation,
and the cutting of power supply from the North, might occur
simultaneously. The Korean economic outlook is, therefore, more grave
than in China or Japan, where governmental fiscal policies as well as
low production, are the main causes of inflation. Korea, lacking raw
materials and skilled labor, is not in a position to be saved from
a disastrous and chaotic hyper-inflation by the efforts of its own
people combined with correct policy decisions. A breakdown could be
forestalled only by external provision of large amounts of consumers’
goods and transportation equipment.
_Agriculture and Fisheries_
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
Reviews
Reviews
No reviews yet
Be the first to share your thoughts on this work.
Elsewhere in the archive
Join the Discussion
Join the discussion
Sign in to leave a comment or review.
Sign InorCreate an account