The Military Government is endeavoring to encourage such trade as
will reduce the area’s dependence upon American funds. Credits
realized from South Korea exports, unless balanced in kind by imports
approved as essential, are to be used to purchase commodities similar
to those making up the Civilian Supply list and certified for import
by the Military Government. On July 15, 1947, Korea was declared open
to small numbers of foreign businessmen, who might desire to develop
trade possibilities within the framework established by the military
authorities. Meanwhile, trade has been undertaken with Hong Kong and
Macao, and some critically needed materials have been obtained by
barter in exchange for Korean surpluses. Recent negotiations with the
Egyptian government have led to an agreement to exchange 730 tons of
tungsten concentrates for 3,000 bales of long-staple Egyptian cotton.
All dealings with Japan are restricted to a governmental level, and
China has imposed conditions which make legitimate trade virtually
out of the question. Actually, a growing smuggling trade is going
on both with Japan and China, and via Hong Kong and Macao. An
essential step for promoting Korea’s trade on a sound basis would be
development of an efficient customs service.
_United States Investment in Rehabilitation_
There is one basic policy question which overhangs all financial and
economic programs for Korea: How long will the occupation of South
Korea continue on a unilateral basis? Until this question is answered
in terms of months or years, no satisfactory decision can be made on
United States financial or developmental programs for the area. The
characteristics of the South Korean economy are such that there is
no compromise which provides effective utilization of dollars, and
at the same time leaves open the decision concerning the duration
of the occupation. If a serious decline in the living standard, and
possibly economic disintegration are to be avoided, South Korea must
have (_a_) unification with North Korea, or (_b_) substantial relief
supplies, or (_c_) relief and rehabilitation supplies of $200 to $300
million a year for several years. The third alternative would provide
a possible basis for an indefinite continuance of occupation. The
capital investment in a permanently separate South Korea would be
wasteful, and the likelihood of a stable economy resulting therefrom
would be in doubt for some years. South Korea is a depleted and
eroded country with no minerals worth mentioning; an agriculture
dependent on nitrate input, and a backward people. In terms of the
needs of the East Asia area, an investment in rehabilitation and
industrialization, which would permit South Korea to subsist on its
own industrial output at its standards of the past 10 years with a
minimum of relief, could be justified only by political and strategic
consideration of the highest order.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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