The influx of the precious metals has been, in a certain sense, a providential occurrence during the revolutionary state of Europe. Credit had either disappeared, or had at least become stagnant. Everywhere, amidst the tempest of the times, both past and prospective, business had been suspended, or carried on only for ready money. Affairs had assumed an aspect of a primitive state of exchange. An increase of metallic circulation might again restore confidence, and calm agitation. The average excess of money imported over that exported, which, before 1848, was not above [227]80,000,000 to 100,000,000 francs, amounted in 1848 and 1849 to nearly [228]300,000,000 francs for each year. Specie in these times supplied the wants of trade, and maintained prices; but, in more easy times, when used not alone, but concurrently with paper money and bills of exchange, for the purposes of circulation, gold and silver would naturally be in use in proportion to the movements of trade. The reason why [229]600,000,000 of francs in coin now encumbers the vaults of the Bank of France, is, because capital is only employed in the stock markets, and that the restoration of trade on a large scale is still confined to a sort of anticipation; but let the industry of the country experience a complete restoration of confidence in the future, and we shall soon see the metallic reserve of the bank diminish; and, as a natural consequence, our market will attract an import of the precious metals from abroad. In short, gold and silver will then be wanted; the state of trade will improve, and we shall have to seek for an increased supply. Let us not then either despair or be too confident; the world is not entering on an Eldorado, nor is it on the eve of a state of ruin. Those who consider gold and silver as positive wealth, who confound an abundant supply of the precious metals with an abundance of capital, and who affirm that the gold imported from California must lower the rate of interest, should remember that the rate of interest is determined by the state of confidence, as well as by the general rule of the supply and demand for loanable capital, and that confidence depends upon the good order existing throughout the civilized world. California itself shows the delusion of such an idea--for there, where gold is strewing the land, interest has risen as high as from eight to ten per cent. per month. Those on the contrary, who, at the idea of the galleons seeking freights in the western continent, dream only of ruin and catastrophes--who anticipate that the day will arrive that the Bank of France will pay persons to take away her gold--should not forget that she sells it now without difficulty even at a small premium, and that this increased trade in gold has not hitherto ruined anybody. PARIS, _August, 1852_. FOOTNOTES [1] £20,000,000 [2] £24,000,000 [3] lbs. 797,629=£37,209,423 [4] £4,000,000