As I said before, _I noticed that stocks which had been the leaders
of the wonderful advance had ceased to advance. They dropped six or
seven points and stayed there. At the same time the rest of the market
kept on advancing under new standard bearers._ Since nothing wrong had
developed with the companies themselves, the reason had to be sought
elsewhere. Those stocks had gone with the current for months. When they
ceased to do so, though the bull tide was still running strong, it
meant that for those particular stocks the bull market was over. For
the rest of the list the tendency was still decidedly upward.
There was no need to be perplexed into inactivity, for there were
really no cross currents. I did not turn bearish on the market then,
because the tape didn’t tell me to do so. The end of the bull market
had not come, though it was within hailing distance. Pending its
arrival there was still bull money to be made. _Such being the case,
I merely turned bearish on the stocks which had stopped advancing and
as the rest of the market had rising power behind it I both bought and
sold._
The leaders that had ceased to lead I sold. I put out a short line of
five thousand shares in each of them; and then I went long of the new
leaders. The stocks I was short of didn’t do much, but my long stocks
kept on rising. When finally these in turn ceased to advance I sold
them out and went short--five thousand shares of each. By this time I
was more bearish than bullish, because obviously the next big money was
going to be made on the down side. While I felt certain that the bear
market had really begun before the bull market had really ended, I knew
the time for being a rampant bear was not yet. There was no sense in
being more royalist than the king; especially in being so too soon. The
tape merely said that patrolling parties from the main bear army had
dashed by. Time to get ready.
I kept on both buying and selling until after about a month’s trading
I had out a short line of sixty thousand shares--five thousand shares
each in a dozen different stocks which earlier in the year had been the
public’s favourites because they had been the leaders of the great bull
market. It was not a very heavy line; but don’t forget that neither was
the market definitely bearish.
Then one day the entire market became quite weak and prices of all
stocks began to fall. When I had a profit of at least four points in
each and every one of the twelve stocks that I was short of, I knew
that I was right. The tape told me it was now safe to be bearish, so I
promptly doubled up.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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